DOT Weekly Analysis Feb 3

Although DOT recorded a modest weekly rise of 1.11%, the main downtrend has not structurally broken; critical supports around $1.40 will be decisive for transitioning to the accumulation phase. Market structure remains weak under BTC pressure, while oversold momentum carries short-term reaction potential.

DOT in the Weekly Market Summary

In the bigger picture, DOT is trapped under pressure from the overall crypto market despite the innovative structure of the Polkadot ecosystem. The weekly close occurred at $1.54, with the trading range narrowing between $1.45-$1.58 and volume profile limited at $179.54M. The primary trend continues downward; although RSI at 30.07 signals oversold, MACD with a negative histogram confirms bearish momentum. Failure to stay above EMA20 ($1.82) strengthens the short-term bearish filter. This week, the market phase will clarify with a $1.5250 support test – accumulation or new lows?

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure shows that DOT has been in a clear downtrend since its 2021 highs (over 90% drop). On higher timeframes (1W/1M), the market structure maintains a lower high/lower low pattern; $1.90 resistance was rejected in recent weeks, and the trendline preserves its downward slope. Staying above the main $1.3997 support is essential to avoid trend breakdown – a break here could trigger a new impulse wave toward $0.8186. In the macro context, factors like BTC dominance and interest rates are pressuring altcoins; while DOT’s parachain auctions and ecosystem developments are long-term catalysts, the cyclical downtrend phase dominates.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis indicates that DOT is in a consolidation exhibiting distribution characteristics. In the volume profile, high-volume rejection points around $1.58 confirm distribution, while the $1.45-$1.5250 range could form a potential accumulation base. According to Wyckoff methodology, the low-volume sideways movement in recent weeks may be preparation for a ‘spring’ test – oversold RSI levels show accumulation phase features (high-volume support hold). However, distribution pressure continues without a breakout above $1.90; the $1.3997 level, where smart money is accumulating positions, is the key to phase transition.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, DOT is balancing above the $1.5250 support confluence (score: 64/100). On the 1D timeframe, bearish bias dominates with 2 supports/3 resistances; closes below EMA20 preserve trend structure. RSI divergence potential (recovery from 30.07) creates short-term bullish confluence, but MACD histogram expansion supports the downside. Critical: A break above $1.5600 starts a daily uptrend – otherwise, test of $1.3997.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective, 3 supports/4 resistances confluence (total 14 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W) emphasizes the downtrend’s strength. Weekly candles show doji-like indecision, with rejection above $1.58 aligning with lower timeframes. Trend filter is bearish; as long as it stays below $1.9006 mega resistance, the weekly structure remains intact. Support confluence on the 3D chart ($1.3997, score 75/100) provides confluence for weekly accumulation.

Critical Decision Points

Main levels that will determine direction: Major supports $1.3997 (high score 75/100, multi-TF confluence), $1.5250 (64/100). Resistances $1.5600 (65/100, short-term pivot), $1.6423 (63/100), $1.9006 (61/100, for trend break). These levels define market structure breakdown points – downtrend accelerates below $1.3997, bullish reversal signal above $1.5600. Check spot data for detailed DOT spot analysis.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

Bullish scenario triggers with a close above $1.5600: First target $1.6423, then $1.9006 and strategic upside $2.2590 (score 13). For position traders, long entry on $1.5250 hold, stop below $1.3997; R/R ratio 1:3+ (downside risk calculated from $0.8186). Confluence increases if BTC stabilizes above $79k. Evaluate leveraged opportunities with DOT futures market data.

In Case of Fall

Bearish scenario activates with $1.5250 breakdown: Targets $1.3997, then $0.8186 (score 22). Short positions on $1.5600 rejection, stop above $1.6423; expect downtrend continuation with high R/R. Be cautious against oversold RSI bounce – volume-less recoveries could be traps.

Bitcoin Correlation

DOT shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); BTC’s downtrend at $78,878 level (Supertrend bearish) is pressuring altcoins. If BTC supports $78,691 / $74,604 break, DOT falls below $1.40; if weakness from resistances $79,269 / $83,548, DOT rally triggers. Rising BTC dominance delays alt season – DOT traders should watch BTC shorts below $74k. Full market view for DOT and other analyses.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $1.5250-$1.5600 breakout/decay, BTC $78k-$79k movement, and volume increase. If trend structure remains intact above $1.3997, expect accumulation buildup; below it, distribution accelerates. Position traders, stay R/R focused – watch key levels before volatility rises.