ICP is consolidating at the $2.65 level within a strong downtrend, with RSI at 32 giving an oversold signal, but lacking support from bearish MACD and Supertrend signals. Critical supports at $2.57 and $2.42 will be tested, and $2.70 resistance must be broken for upward movement.
Executive Summary
ICP is trading at $2.65 as of February 3, 2026, with the overall market structure indicating a downtrend. The price remains below EMA20 ($3.16), and although RSI at 32.19 is approaching the oversold zone, the MACD negative histogram and Supertrend bearish configuration may limit short-term recovery. Critical supports are concentrated at $2.5701 and $2.4220, while resistances stand strong at $2.7023 and $2.8470. Volume is at low levels of $77.70M, and a cautious approach is recommended for altcoins due to BTC correlation. The risk/reward ratio is weak against bearish targets ($0.4655), but the oversold RSI carries bounce potential.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
ICP’s current trend direction can be clearly defined as a downtrend. The higher high/lower low structure is broken on daily and weekly charts, with price action squeezed in the $2.62-$2.85 range with a 0.49% drop in the last 24 hours. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and positioning $3.55 as resistance. Remaining below EMA20 ($3.16) in the short-term trend reinforces bearish momentum. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) has identified 11 strong levels: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/4R distribution on 1W, with long-term bearish bias dominant.
Structural Levels
Structural levels are prominent with high-scoring zones derived from market profile. The main support zone is at $2.5701 (score 79/100), aligned with swing lows and volume profile POC. Secondary support at $2.4220 (74/100) is a strong base from the 3D timeframe. On the resistance side, $2.7023 (64/100) is the first hurdle, followed by $2.8470 (61/100) coinciding with daily highs. Higher levels at $3.16 EMA20 and $3.55 Supertrend resistance are critical thresholds. This structural framework indicates that a break below $2.57 will accelerate toward $2.42, while holding above $2.70 could trigger a short-covering rally.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 32.19, approaching the oversold threshold (30) and carrying divergence potential – a higher low formation in RSI may be observed as price makes new lows, signaling a short-term bounce. MACD is bearish: the negative histogram is widening, with the MACD line below the signal line confirming momentum loss. Additional momentum tools like Stochastic and CCI are squeezed in the 20-30 band, indicating reduced selling pressure but buyers not yet in control. Overall momentum confluence is bearish, but oversold conditions increase reversal risk.
Trend Indicators
EMA crossovers are bearish: Price remains below EMA20 ($3.16), EMA50 ($3.45), and EMA200 ($4.20), with death cross configuration active. Supertrend in bearish mode draws a $3.55 resistance line, with ATR-based trailing stop suggestion valid for short positions. In Ichimoku Cloud, price is below the cloud, with downward Tenkan-Senjin crossover. Parabolic SAR dots above price confirm downtrend continuation. Trend indicators confluence is 80% bearish; EMA20 close above is required for trend change.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Critical levels are mapped with multi-timeframe and volume profile integration. Supports: $2.5701 (79/100, 1D swing low + POC), $2.4220 (74/100, 3D base), additional psychological $2.30 and 1W low $2.10. Resistances: $2.7023 (64/100, gap fill), $2.8470 (61/100, 24h high), $3.16 EMA20, $3.55 Supertrend. Score-based probability: $2.57 break 65% down, $2.70 break 40% up. Fibonacci retracement (last major swing $4.50-$2.30): 38.2% $3.05, 50% $3.40 resistance; 61.8% near $2.75 support. Pivot points (classic): R1 $2.78, S1 $2.58 aligned.
Volume and Market Participation
24-hour volume at $77.70M, low compared to previous days – declining volume in downtrend indicates weakening momentum but no capitulation. Volume profile POC at $2.57 is high volume, reliable as support. OBV indicator shows negative divergence: OBV flat as price falls, implying buyer accumulation. Delta analysis (buy/sell volume) favors sellers but tapering. Large order blocks around $2.60 show absorption, liquidity sweep risk increasing with low volume. Volume confluence supports expecting a spike on support test; sustained upside requires $100M+ volume.
Risk Assessment
From current $2.65, risk/reward framework: Bullish target $4.2130 (score 25, upside 59%), bearish $0.4655 (score 22, downside 82%). R/R ratio 1:0.72 (unfavorable for bulls), short bias recommended. Main risks: BTC downtrend dragging altcoins (0.85 correlation), snap-back rally from low RSI (30% probability). Volatility (ATR 0.15) high, stop-loss suggestions: Long below $2.50, short above $2.75. Position size limited to 1-2% risk, lack of news flow keeps focus technical. Overall risk level medium-high, cautious approach.
Bitcoin Correlation
ICP shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); BTC at $78,038 in downtrend (Supertrend bearish), despite +1.27% in 24h, testing key supports $78,674/$74,604. If BTC breaks $79,391 resistance, ICP could see short-covering; however, break below $74k triggers cascade sell-off in altcoins (ICP $2.42 target). BTC dominance rising, altcoin rotation distant; monitor BTC key levels: Support breach to ICP $2.30, resistance clear green light for ICP $3.00+. Caution: BTC bearish bias weighing on ICP.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
ICP’s technical chart shows bearish dominance: Downtrend, price below EMA, bearish MACD/Supertrend, and low volume confluence confirm short-term weakness. Although oversold RSI and $2.57 support score offer bounce opportunity, BTC correlation and R/R disadvantage make aggressive longs risky. Strategic outlook: Wait for $2.70 resistance break (targets $2.85/$3.16), downside break to $2.42 short (target $2.10). Multi-TF levels provide clear roadmap with 11 strong points; detailed trade setups available in ICP Spot Analysis and ICP Futures Analysis. Long-term holders hold $2.42, scalpers range trade ($2.57-2.70). Professional risk management essential, market neutral bias tilted bearish.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/icp-comprehensive-technical-analysis-detailed-review-of-february-3-2026
