Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: What to Expect from Earnings Tuesday?

TLDR

• Super Micro Computer releases Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings February 3 with Wall Street forecasting $10.42 billion revenue (up 83.4% year-over-year) but EPS declining to $0.49 from $0.51
• Options market expects 11.9% stock swing following results, nearly double the average 7.06% move over the past four quarters
• The company holds a $13 billion order backlog but faces margin compression from competition and supply chain challenges
• Analyst ratings split with Hold consensus, price targets ranging from $26 (Goldman Sachs Sell) to $63 (Northland Buy)
• Recent Q1 results disappointed with $5.02 billion revenue versus $6.48 billion expected while Justice Department continues accounting investigation

Super Micro Computer unveils Q2 fiscal 2026 results after market close February 3. The stock dropped 3.6% over the past five days as investors prepare for potentially sharp moves.

Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI

Analysts project adjusted earnings per share of $0.49, down from $0.51 in the year-ago quarter. Revenue should jump 83.4% year-over-year to $10.42 billion. The company guided for Q2 revenue between $10 billion and $11 billion with EPS of $0.46 to $0.54.

The track record isn’t encouraging. SMCI missed earnings estimates in five of the past eight quarters.

Shares gained 2.1% Monday to $29.71. Trading volume hit 26.46 million shares, roughly 17% below the daily average.

Backlog Battles Supply Chain Constraints

The Q1 FY26 order backlog topped $13 billion, signaling robust demand. Supply chain issues threaten to block conversion of those orders into sales. Margins face pressure as competition heats up in the AI server market.

Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Ng launched coverage with a Sell rating and $26 price target. He expects SMCI to maintain AI server market leadership but warns that large contracts, rising competition from OEMs and ODMs, and higher input costs will squeeze margins.

The most recent quarter told a rough story. EPS came in at $0.35, missing the $0.46 estimate by 24%. Revenue reached $5.02 billion versus expectations of $6.48 billion, down 15.5% year-over-year.

Citi analyst Asiya Merchant kept a Hold rating but slashed her price target from $48 to $39. She cited sustained cloud operator spending driving demand for power systems and storage.

Options Traders Bet on Big Swings

The Justice Department investigation into accounting practices hangs over the stock. Short-seller Hindenburg Research highlighted these concerns last year. Any earnings call updates could trigger movement.

Analyst opinions remain divided. Four rate the stock Hold, one says Buy, and one recommends Sell.

Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi holds the most bullish view with a Buy rating and $63 price target, implying 112% upside.

The consensus rating stands at Hold based on five Buys, six Holds, and two Sells. The average price target of $44 suggests 48.1% upside. SMCI shares gained 10.6% over the past year, lagging the S&P 500.

Management projects full-year EPS of $1.86. The company carries a market cap of $17.74 billion with a P/E ratio of 23.77. Institutional investors control 84.06% of shares.

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