XLM Technical Analysis Feb 3

XLM is approaching the critical primary support zone of 0.1655$ from the 0.17$ level; it has dropped 5.74% in the last 24 hours, trapped in the oversold region (RSI 27.59), with a bearish trend prevailing.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

XLM is positioned around 0.17$ within the overall downtrend and trading below the short-term EMA20 (0.20$). This level has acted as strong dynamic resistance in recent weeks, and the price’s inability to break above it reinforces the bearish momentum. Among the 9 strong levels identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes, 0.1655$ stands out as the primary support (83/100 score) and 0.1853$ as the nearby resistance (70/100 score). The price showed narrow consolidation in the 0.17$-0.18$ range over the last 24 hours, with volume remaining low at 75.49M$; this indicates that big players are positioning for liquidity hunts. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal (resistance at 0.21$), while multi-timeframe confluence is concentrated on supports and resistances: 1D shows 1 support/2 resistances, 3D shows 2 supports, 1W shows 1 support/4 resistances.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

The 0.1655$ level (83/100 score) stands out as XLM’s most critical buyer zone. This zone shows order block confluence on 1D and 3D timeframes; following the sharp drop in October 2025, it was tested and rejected three times here with aggressive buying volume (approximately 2x average volume). From a price action perspective, this level represents a demand zone: on the last test, doji candles with long wicks formed, indicating that buyers strengthened their defense line. It also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement on the 1W timeframe, and its proximity to historical lows increases liquidity accumulation potential. If this level breaks, momentum will shift downward rapidly; for invalidation, look for a close above 0.1680$.

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

Secondary support is in the 0.13$-0.14$ range (3D confluence), but the main downside target is 0.0941$ (22/100 score). This zone is a breaker block left over from the supply-demand imbalance at the start of 2025; although the volume profile is low, it gains strength from monthly low confluence on 1W. For stop-loss levels: below primary support at 0.1640$, for secondary at 0.1250$. The importance of these levels lies in being liquidity pools: stop hunts can be triggered here, potentially pulling the price deeper. Although the oversold RSI (27.59) shows a divergence signal, buyers should be cautious as the trend is bearish.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

0.1853$ (70/100 score) is the strongest short-term seller zone. It shows confluence with EMA20 (0.20$) and 1D swing high; in the last two weeks, when price approached here, sellers stepped in, resulting in rejections with high volume spikes. Bearish engulfing patterns dominate the price action, and the Supertrend resistance (0.21$) reinforces it. From an order flow perspective, this level is a premium pricing zone: it should be tested by sweeping buy-side liquidity before an upward breakout.

Main Resistance and Targets

The main resistance at 0.3383$ (61/100 score) forms a strong resistance cluster on the 1W timeframe. This level is a supply zone that closed the fair value gap from the June 2025 rally; tested four times, each with volume increases triggering drops. Upside target is 0.2390$ (41/100 score), a mid-term extension with PD array confluence. For breakout confirmation, a weekly close above 0.19$ is required; otherwise, sellers remain in control. Risk/reward ratio: from 0.1655$ to 0.1853$ is 1:1.5, downside potential 1:3.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

Big players (smart money) are targeting the equal lows liquidity below the 0.1655$ support; this area is full of stop-loss clusters, with a reversal expected after a sweep. Above, the 0.1853$-0.21$ range is a sell-side liquidity pool: ideal for breakout fakeouts. Examining the volume profile, the area around 0.17$ is the value area low, with imbalance downward. Order blocks: bullish OB at 0.1655$ on 3D, bearish OB at 0.20$. Big players are likely accumulating short positions at 0.1853$, to hunt liquidity on a support break.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend with a 5.06% drop at the 74,737$ level; main supports at 74,625$, 71,188$, and 63,235$. XLM shows high correlation with BTC (0.85), and BTC’s Supertrend bearish signal is pressuring alts. If BTC fails to break 76,937$ resistance, XLM will be pulled to 0.1655$; if BTC drops below 71k, XLM’s downside target accelerates to 0.0941$. Conversely, if BTC rises to 79,318$, XLM opens upside to 0.2390$. Rising BTC dominance is risky for altcoins.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: If it holds above 0.1655$, long bias for XLM Spot Analysis (targets 0.1853$-0.2390$), stop at 0.1640$. On breakout, short for XLM Futures Analysis, target 0.0941$. Wait for multi-timeframe confluence: 1D rejection + volume spike. This is not financial advice; apply your own risk management, target R/R 1:2+. Market is volatile, no news flow but macro risks (BTC) dominate.