Is This a Crypto Winter? Burry Says $50K, Tiger Says No

Michael Burry, the investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warned Monday that Bitcoin’s sharp decline could trigger a cascade of forced selling across multiple asset classes.

With Bitcoin down 40% from October highs and altcoins collapsing 20-40% since the January FOMC meeting, the question dominating crypto markets is whether a full-blown crypto winter has arrived.

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Michael Burry Warns BTC Could Hit $50K

In a Substack post, the “Big Short” investor estimated that up to $1 billion in precious metals were liquidated at the end of January as institutional investors and corporate treasurers rushed to cover crypto losses.

“There is no organic use case reason for Bitcoin to slow or stop its descent,” Burry wrote. He warned that if BTC falls to $50,000, mining firms could face bankruptcy, and the market for tokenized metals futures could “collapse into a black hole with no buyer.”

Bitcoin briefly touched $73,000 on Tuesday, marking a 40% decline from its October peak above $126,000. Burry argued that the cryptocurrency has failed to live up to its pitch as a digital safe haven and alternative to gold, dismissing recent ETF-driven gains as speculative rather than evidence of lasting adoption.

Strategy and BitMine: The Unraveling of Crypto Treasury Model

Burry’s contagion warning is supported by concrete evidence in the struggles of crypto-treasury companies. Strategy, the Bitcoin accumulation firm led by Michael Saylor, is now sitting on paper losses after BTC fell below its average purchase price of approximately $76,000. The company recorded $17.44 billion in unrealized losses in the fourth quarter alone.

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Strategy’s market capitalization has plummeted from $128 billion in July to $40 billion, a 61% decline from Bitcoin’s October high. The company’s mNAV—enterprise value divided by the value of its crypto holdings—has dropped from over 2 a year ago to 1.1, approaching the critical threshold that could force token sales.

Strategy raised the possibility of selling holdings if mNAV drops below one, marking a shift from Saylor’s long-held never-sell stance. The company raised $1.44 billion through a stock sale to ensure it can meet future dividend and debt payments.

BitMine Immersion Technologies, backed by Peter Thiel and chaired by Tom Lee of Fundstrat, faces even steeper losses. The Ethereum accumulation firm holds 4.3 million ETH purchased at an average price of $3,826, now worth around $2,300—representing over $6 billion in unrealized losses.

Analysts warn that crypto-treasury firms are trapped by their own narrative. Any sale, even a small one, would send a devastating signal that could crash both the company’s stock and the underlying token, far more than the sale itself would help.

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Technical Analysis Points to Extended Downtrend

Japanese analyst Hiroyuki Kato of CXR Engineering warned that the crypto market may have entered a long-term downtrend. Bitcoin broke below its November low, triggering a shift from buy-the-dip to short-selling strategies.

Ethereum’s breach of the critical 400,000 yen ($2,600) support level has accelerated its decline, with altcoins across the board down 20-40% since the January FOMC meeting. Kato noted that the weekly chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern approaching its neckline—a breach would make a near-term recovery structurally difficult.

“The high volatility in crypto and precious metals ahead of broader equity markets could be a canary in the coal mine,” Kato wrote, suggesting risk-off positioning until conditions stabilize.

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Not a Crypto Winter, But a New Paradigm

Despite the bearish signals, Tiger Research argues this downturn differs fundamentally from previous crypto winters. Past winters—2014’s Mt. Gox hack, 2018’s ICO bust, 2022’s Terra-FTX collapse—erupted from internal industry failures that destroyed trust and drove talent away.

“We didn’t create the spring, so there is no winter either,” the report states. Both the 2024 rally and the current decline were driven by external factors: ETF approvals, tariff policies, and interest rate expectations.

More significantly, the market has split into three layers post-regulation: a regulated zone with capped volatility, an unregulated zone for high-risk speculation, and shared infrastructure such as stablecoins that serve both. The trickle-down effect that once lifted all tokens when Bitcoin rose has disappeared. ETF capital stays in Bitcoin and doesn’t flow into altcoins.

“A crypto season where everything rises together is unlikely to come again,” Tiger Research concluded. “The next bull run will come. But it will not come for everyone.”

For that bull run to materialize, two conditions must align: a killer use case emerging from the unregulated zone, and a supportive macroeconomic environment. Until then, the market remains in an unprecedented state—neither winter nor spring, but something entirely new.