The USD/CAD pair turns lower for the second straight day and trades below mid-1.3600s through the early European session on Wednesday, though the downtick lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any buyers amid bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, softer Crude Oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
From a technical perspective, this week’s failure near the 1.3700 mark – the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in January – andthe subsequent slide favors the USD/CAD bears. Moreover, the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart trends modestly lower, with spot price hovering around it, which keeps a fragile near-term bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the Signal line and the histogram contracts in shallow negative territory near the zero line, suggesting fading bearish pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, below the 50 midline, reinforcing a cautious tone without oversold conditions. In the meantime, the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3651 acts as immediate resistance, and a decisive push above would open room toward 1.3704, or the 50% retracement, which should cap the recovery attempt. A rejection under this barrier would keep rebounds shallow and leave the focus on maintaining traction above the 200-period SMA to avoid renewed downside pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/CAD 1-hour chart
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Next release:
Wed Feb 04, 2026 13:15
Frequency:
Monthly
Consensus:
48K
Previous:
41K
Source:
ADP Research Institute
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-seems-vulnerable-below-mid-13600s-as-traders-await-us-data-202602040728
