30% Risk Despite Tom Lee’s Theory

BMNR stock price remains under pressure in early February as selling continues across crypto-linked equities. The stock is down nearly 25% over five days and more than 33% over one month, trading around $22.35.

While management defended recent crypto-led paper losses as part of a long-term strategy, market data suggests technical weakness is still driving investor behavior. And increasingly driving them away, despite a novel defense from BitMine Chairman, Tom Lee.

Ethereum Treasury Losses Spark ‘Feature, Not A Bug’ Defense

Concerns around BitMine’s balance sheet intensified after data showed heavy unrealized losses on its Ethereum treasury.

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As of February 3, BitMine had invested roughly $14.95 billion into ETH holdings. However, the current market value had fallen to around $8.53 billion, implying paper losses of more than $6.4 billion.

At the same time, Ethereum was trading near $2,200, well below BitMine’s average acquisition cost of roughly $3,800. This gap highlighted how deeply underwater the company’s treasury had become.

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These figures triggered criticism from market observers, who argued that such large unrealized losses could limit future upside and pressure shareholder returns. Some warned that accumulated ETH could eventually act as a selling supply.

In response, Chairman Tom Lee defended the strategy, stating that drawdowns are “a feature, not a bug.” He argued that crypto cycles naturally involve temporary losses and that BitMine is designed to accumulate through downturns to outperform over time.

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However, despite this explanation, BMNR stock failed to attract sustained buying interest after the comments.

OBV and CMF Show Buyers Stayed Away After the Breakdown

Market participation data suggests that investors began exiting even before the public debate intensified.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days. It reflects whether traders are accumulating or distributing.

From early December through late-January, OBV was forming higher lows, signaling steady accumulation. But between January 28 and 29, OBV broke below its rising trend line. This showed that possibly retail and short-term traders had started distributing shares.

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After OBV weakened, institutional-style capital followed.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures whether money is flowing into or out of an asset using price and volume. Readings above zero suggest accumulation, while negative values signal capital outflows.

From January 30 onward, CMF fell sharply and remained below zero. This confirmed that large buyers were reducing exposure as the BMNR price approached key support. Both indicators aligned with the chart structure.

BMNR had been forming a head-and-shoulders pattern through December and January. When price failed near the neckline and then broke down on February 2 (gap-down formation), OBV and CMF confirmed the move.

In sequence, retail volume weakened first, large capital exited next, and prices collapsed afterward. The “feature, not a bug” ETH treasury narrative did not reverse this flow-driven sell-off.

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Key BMNR Stock Price Levels Define the Next Move

After breaking the head-and-shoulders neckline and the rising trend line, the BMNR stock price resumed its broader downtrend, a projected dip of over 30%.

Several levels now define the outlook. On the downside, initial support sits near $19.26 if the BMNR stock price doesn’t reclaim $22.52 on the daily timeframe. Below $19.26, the next major level stands near $16.71, which aligns with the full technical projection of the bearish pattern.

If selling pressure accelerates, extended downside could reach toward $9.87, pushing the stock into single-digit territory. On the upside, recovery remains difficult.

The first resistance lies near $22.52. The BMNR stock price must reclaim this level to slow the decline. Above that, resistance appears near $25.07 and $28.66. These zones would need to be cleared to signal early stabilization.

A broader trend shift would require a move above $34.46, followed by confirmation near $42. For now, both OBV and CMF remain weak, showing that buyers have not returned in force. Until capital flows turn positive and key resistance is reclaimed, technical pressure is likely to dominate BMNR stock price behavior.