With crypto winter clearly having set in, bulls are now left looking for signs that the bearishness has become so embedded that a bottom might form.

One case in point might be a note from Canaccord's Joseph Vafi on Wednesday, slashing his price target on Strategy (MSTR) by a whopping 61% to $185 from $474.

Vafi, who lifted his outlook on Strategy as recently as November (to that $474 level), still maintains a buy rating on the stock, and his new $185 target suggests about 40% upside from last night's close of $133.

Strategy is now down 15% year-to-date, 62% year-over-year, and 72% from its record high in November 2024.

Bitcoin, said Vafi, is in the midst of an “identity crisis,” still fitting the profile of a long-term store of value but increasingly trading like a risk asset. That tension came into focus during October’s crypto flash crash, when forced liquidations accelerated selling.

Though frequently cast as “digital gold,” bitcoin has failed to keep pace with the recent surge in precious metals, he continued. As gold has climbed on geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, bitcoin has lagged, underscoring its ongoing dependence on liquidity and risk appetite rather than safe-haven demand.

Strategy is built to weather volatility, the report said. The company holds more than $44 billion in bitcoin against roughly $8 billion in convertible debt, including a $1 billion tranche puttable in 2027 that remains in the money. Preferred dividends are manageable through modest share issuance, even with MSTR's market cap no longer commanding much of a premium to the value of its BTC holdings.

Quarterly results are coming this week, but they have become largely immaterial given Strategy’s near-complete dependence on BTC, Vafi continued. A sizable unrealized loss tied to bitcoin’s fourth-quarter selloff is expected.

Vafi’s new $185 target assumes a 20% rebound in bitcoin prices and a recovery in the company’s mNAV to about 1.25x.

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