ASEAN trade and China exports dominance

As it is the Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year, the Philippines is hosting many meetings prior to the ASEAN Summit plus related summits with major economies — the US, Canada, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, Russia, the EU, etc. — in November.

Recent meetings included the 18^th Meeting of the Committee of the Whole (CoW) for the ASEAN Economic Community on Jan. 25, the 34^th Meeting of the ASEAN Trade Facilitation Joint Consultative Committee (ATF-JCC) on Jan. 26-28, and the 45^th ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum (ABMF) and Related Events on Feb. 2-4.

There will be an interesting event, the ASEAN Editors and Economic Opinion Leaders Forum, sponsored by the ASEAN Committee on Business and Investment Promotion (CBIP), on Feb. 24 here in Manila.

Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the full year 2025 merchandise exports and imports data, along with 2024 data. I checked the previous PSA data for 2022 and 2023 and compiled it all in a single table here.

One can see that our merchandise or goods exports increased from $73.3 billion in 2024 to $84.4 billion in 2025. Our merchandise exports also increased, from $127.6 billion in 2024 to $133.6 billion in 2025. This is a bit lower than 2022’s imports of $137.2 billion.

An interesting trend emerges — the share of imports from China has been rising steadily: from 21% of total imports in 2022, to 23% in 2023, 26% in 2024, and nearly 29% in 2025. In contrast, the shares of imports of the US, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Australia have been declining from 2022 to 2025.

There has been a mild increase in the import shares of Thailand and Vietnam, while other countries’ share are generally flat (see Table 1).

So for all the anti-China propaganda and campaigns in the Philippines resulting in survey results of low “trust in China,” the economic and trade data show an entirely different story: trust by Philippines businesses and consumers is rising for Chinese products. The Philippines’ trucking, logistics, and construction companies buy more Howo, Shackman, and Jac trucks than Japanese or Korean trucks, and no US trucks. Philippine’ bus companies and tour companies buy more Yutong, Higer, Kinglong, and Zhongtong buses than Japanese, Korean, or European buses, and no US buses. And Philippine motorists are buying more BYD, Geely, MG, and GAC cars, which can endanger the market share of Japanese, Korean, and US car brands.

I also checked World Trade Organization (WTO) data on merchandise trade. I chose to focus on exports of manufactures over the last two decades until 2024, as there is no data yet for 2025.

Until 2000, the largest exporter of manufactured goods in the world was the US with $648 billion, followed by Germany with $483 billion, and Japan with $450 billion. China had only $220 billion.

China overtook them all by 2010 or just one decade later, with $1,476 billion, nearly twice that of the US. In 2024, China’s manufactured exports of $3.26 trillion was nearly three times that of the US, more than two times that of Germany, nearly six times that of Japan and South Korea, and 10 times that of the UK. This demonstrates China’s exports dominance especially in manufactured goods.

Among the ASEAN-6, Vietnam’s exports are hopping like a kangaroo, from being the smallest exporter in 2000 with only $6 billion, to the second largest in 2024 with $339 billion. The Philippines has the smallest amount of exports in the ASEAN-6 (see Table 2).

The Philippines’ chairmanship of the ASEAN this year should be a great opportunity for the country to focus more on increasing trade, and merchandise exports and imports — non-merchandise or services trade like tourism, overseas labor, and business process outsourcing businesses should follow.

The current preoccupation by the unproductive war-mongering sectors to exaggerate the Philippines-China dispute over territory should be tamed. We should focus on more trade and investment, more tourism and cultural exchange, more diplomacy and endless negotiations.

We should have more spending on trucks, tractors, buses, gadgets and electronics, and not spending on battleships, jet fighters, and missiles. The ASEAN is a zone of business and commerce hungry for peace and prosperity. We should keep it that way.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com