Expert highlights 'worst-case scenario' after major international nuclear treaty expires

A former US State Department employee has outlined what a "worst-case scenario" would look like following the expiry of the New START deal.

The treaty was a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia, which expired today (February 5). Donald Trump claimed that, should the deal expire, the administration would move to put another one into effect, though details of this have not yet been confirmed.

Russia, who suspended its participation in the New START deal in 2023, confirmed they would still abide by the numerical limits imposed by the deal. Rose Gottemoeller, the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security at the US State Department, has sounded the alarm on what could be the worst-case scenario for the deal's expiration.

She told CNN that no longer imposing a numerical limit on Russia's weapons of mass destruction "leaves us in the dust while we're still trying to get organized and the Chinese are building up steadily again."

Gottemoeller added a year-long extension could be of benefit to the US, though there is much work to be done when it comes to "plan and prepare" a new deal.

She added, "They have active warhead production lines as well as active production lines for other related components for their missile systems that they would be able to upload rapidly. We know they have that industrial capacity available, and we do not have it."

Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, disagreed and suggested the treaty is not as powerful a deterrent as the US nuclear arsenal itself.

He said, "In theory, it is nice to have limitations, but the main goal of US nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear war, not to have treaties."

Trump was flippant when asked about the treaty last month, saying, "If it expires, it expires. We'll do a better agreement."