TRX Technical Analysis Feb 5

TRX’s 24-hour volume is hovering at the 172.27 million dollar level, supporting the recent decline with low participation; this indicates weak selling pressure and potential accumulation signals. Market sentiment expects gradual recovery according to the volume profile.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

TRX’s current volume profile shows that the 24-hour trading volume remains about 15% below the 7-day average at 172.27 million dollars. This low volume level indicates that the price movement within the downtrend occurred without broad market participation. While volume increase is generally expected in a healthy downtrend, here volume on down moves remains weak – the 2.23% decline in the last 24 hours was supported by 20% lower volume compared to previous days. This suggests that retail investors are not participating much in selling, and institutional players are holding their positions.

From a market participation perspective, the volume profile’s Value Area High (VAH) is concentrated around $0.285; with the price pulling back to $0.28, it has entered the Low Volume Node (LVN) region. These LVNs represent weak support areas where price can pass quickly, and the $0.2766 support may be tested. The volume histogram confirms low participation due to no volume surge even in upticks over the last 3 days. Comparatively, price stabilizations were observed when the 1-week average volume exceeded 200 million dollars; the current low volume implies no panic selling and that the market is preparing for consolidation.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals are prominent in low-volume declines: Although the price is below EMA20 ($0.29), volume divergence is positive – volume decreased as price fell, which is a classic accumulation pattern (similar to Wyckoff Accumulation Phase C). With RSI at 35.48 approaching the oversold region, there is no volume climax selling; if volume increases at the $0.2706-$0.2766 supports, strong accumulation confirmation could come. In MTF volume context, the 1D timeframe has 2 support levels (scores 80/100 and 61/100), and 3D has 2 strong supports; this indicates that big players may be bottom fishing.

Additionally, although Supertrend is bearish, volume rejection at $0.30 resistance is weak; historical data shows 15% rallies after similar low-volume periods (e.g., January 2026).

Distribution Risks

Distribution warnings are limited: If there is a volume spike at $0.2895 resistance (score 75/100), trap rally risk increases. Combined with negative MACD histogram and BTC downtrend, high-volume rejection in the $0.2834-$0.2959 range could turn into distribution. On the 1W timeframe, 3 resistances dominate (R weight in total 12 levels), opening the door for sellers to exploit weak participation.

Price-Volume Harmony

Price movement is only partially confirmed by volume: The 2.23% decline occurred on low volume, showing a lack of conviction in the bearish price action. While volume uptick is expected on down moves in a healthy downtrend, here there is divergence – volume shrinks as price makes new lows. This is the ‘drying up volume’ pattern and could be a reversal precursor.

In up moves analysis, volume is neutral in recent micro rallies (e.g., $0.2834 test); no confirmation. Remaining below EMA20 is bearish, but it remains weak without volume confirmation. If RSI divergence potential (price lower low, RSI higher low?) is supported by volume, a bullish shift could occur.

Big Player Activity

Institutional activity patterns show a stable Point of Control (POC) around $0.28 in the volume profile; big players may be defending this level. Although abundance of resistance (5R) on 3D timeframe implies whale distribution, the overall volume decline signals selling exhaustion. In the past, TRX experienced breakouts after institutional accumulation periods in the 150-200M volume range (e.g., Q4 2025). The current $172M reflects a watch-and-wait mode; sudden spikes (300M+) would signal institutional entry/exit.

Warning: We cannot know exact institutional positions, but MTF levels (1W 2S/3R) suggest big capital is support-focused.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend with a 6.33% decline at $71,025 level; Supertrend bearish and rising dominance signal caution for altcoins. TRX has 0.85 correlation with BTC – if BTC breaks $70,076 support, TRX’s $0.2395 bearish target (score 4) activates. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $73,158 resistance, look for volume support for TRX’s $0.3210 bullish target (score 54). Key BTC levels: Support $70K-$66K, resistance $73K-$77K; TRX volume will confirm BTC moves.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously optimistic: Low participation weakens the decline, and if $0.2766 support holds on volume test, accumulation begins. Bearish scenario: Volume climax ($250M+) with BTC crash. Follow volume confirmations for TRX Spot Analysis and TRX Futures Analysis. Targets: Bull $0.32, Bear $0.24; wait for breakout above volume average.

Educational note: Volume tells the story behind price – low-volume declines often bring reversals, high-volume advances are sustainable.