Narvar Finds January Returns Climb Nearly Twice as Fast as Holiday Sales, Marking a More Cautious Consumer Entering 2026

Holiday order volume rose 6%, but a sharper jump in returns underscores provisional purchasing and growing pressure on retailer margins

SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — New data from Narvar shows that while overall holiday order volume increased approximately 6% year over year, return volume rose nearly twice as fast—up roughly 11%—pushing return rates higher across multiple retail categories.

This spike in returns outpaced sales growth by a significant margin, signaling a shift toward “provisional purchasing” as consumer sentiment takes a sharp turn. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence plummeted to a 12-year low in January, as households voiced intensifying concerns over the labor market and persistent service-sector inflation.

“With consumer confidence at its lowest point since 2014 and every dollar being scrutinized, a return is now a customer’s final filter for their budget,” said Anisa Kumar, CEO of Narvar. “Because shoppers are no longer keeping items that don’t meet an exact need or value threshold, the real danger for retailers is that a confusing or rigid return process won’t just cost them a sale—it will cost them the customer entirely. Brands that treat returns as a moment for personalized service, rather than just a logistics problem, are the ones that will win repeat loyalty in this cautious market.”

The data also highlights how retailers are adapting their operations to manage this volume. Those adopting more flexible, cost-aware returns options are seeing measurable benefits:

• Logistics Efficiency: Boxless returns cut total processing expenses by 15–20%. By eliminating individual packaging and consolidating shipments, retailers are reclaiming margin even as return volumes climb.
• Customer Experience: This simplified drop-off process removes the tedious steps and confusion that usually kill customer loyalty. Even when a product is sent back, a streamlined experience keeps the door open for the next purchase.

As retailers move past the holiday peak into a more cautious buying environment, the data signals that shoppers are not pulling back entirely. Instead, they are making more careful choices and expecting clear, convenient returns. For retailers, designing policies that reflect current consumer sentiment and the actual costs of processing will be key to protecting margins and maintaining trust in the year ahead.

Narvar is the leading global platform supporting the consumer journey beyond the buy button. With insights into nearly 200 million U.S. consumers, Narvar uses AI to help retailers turn delivery, insurance, tracking, fraud protection, and returns into opportunities to build loyalty, reduce fraud, and control rising operational costs. By personalizing post-purchase experiences while minimizing risk, Narvar enables retailers to protect margins and strengthen relationships throughout the customer journey.

About Narvar
Narvar is the #1 platform for intelligent personalization “Beyond Buy,” empowering over 1,500 of the world’s most admired brands—including Sephora, Levi’s, Sonos, Warby Parker and LVMH—to engage consumers, deliver seamless operations and grow their business. Powered by IRIS and billions of data points, Narvar transforms the post-purchase journey by delivering personalized insights that build trust, safeguard operations and unlock sustainable growth. From returns and exchanges to tracking, notifications and fraud prevention, Narvar sets the standard for data-driven retail experiences. To learn more, visit Narvar.com.

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SOURCE Narvar