ZEC Technical Analysis Feb 5

ZEC is maintaining a clear downtrend LH/LL structure; if $228.32 swing low breaks, bearish BOS will trigger, otherwise $269 resistance may be tested.

Market Structure Overview

ZEC’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The recent series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) confirms bearish momentum. While trading at $220.69, it tested the daily low of $219.92 with a 24-hour drop of 19.83%. This structure deviates from the higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) bullish trend, reinforcing Change of Character (CHoCH) signals in the bearish direction. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 2S/5R on 1W with resistance dominance. The price’s inability to sustainably settle above EMA20 ($331.88) strengthens the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, and the $347.05 resistance line is the main obstacle. Although RSI at 26.60 is approaching the oversold zone, MACD continues the bearish crossover with a negative histogram. Market structure analysis requires monitoring the preservation of LLs for trend continuation and the break of the HL structure for reversal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

A HH/HL series is required for a bullish trend; however, ZEC’s recent swing highs have declined from $550.7182 to $269.1397, showing LH formation. Potential bullish continuation target $427.6018 (score:30/100) is low probability, as price is below EMA20 and Supertrend is bearish. A close above $269.1397 and a new HH (above $276.44) is needed to confirm HL structure. Divergence can be sought in RSI oversold, but it remains weak as long as MACD is bearish. In MTF, if 1W supports (around $228.32) hold, local HH/HL recovery is possible, but the overall structure is LH/LL dominant.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: Latest LL $219.92, lower than previous LLs. If $269.1397 LH breaks, BOS will be downward. Bearish target $12.3445 (score:22) is distant, but $228.32 swing low break triggers bearish CHoCH. 24h -19.83% drop increases momentum. Correlation with BTC downtrend can accelerate LL chain in altcoins. Watch: New LL formation confirms trend continuation.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) confirms trend change. For bearish BOS: Close below $228.3200 swing low (80/100 score) extends LL and strengthens downtrend; target $200-210 intermediate supports. Bullish BOS: Daily close above $269.1397 (61/100) and $347.05 Supertrend breaks LH and signals transition to HL structure; $427 target opens. CHoCH definition: Break of bearish swing high ($269) required for bullish CHoCH. MTF BOS: $228 break on 1D, invalidation of $550 resistance on 3D. These levels invalidate market structure: Upper break initiates HH/HL, lower break deepens LH/LL. For trading: Wait for BOS, beware of fakeouts.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Latest swing high $550.7182 (65/100), main source of bearish LH; unbroken, forms resistance pool. $269.1397 (61/100) local LH, point of price rejection – critical for retry. These levels are targets for liquidity grabs; if BOS stays below, new LHs form. Importance: LHs invalidate upside, short entry zones.

Recent Swing Lows

$228.3200 (80/100) strong swing low, current support; hold increases HL probability. Daily low $219.92 tested, but close above. If not higher than previous LLs, LL continues. Importance: Break accelerates bearish momentum, hold provides base for recovery. MTF supports concentrated on 1W.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $69,588 in downtrend (-8.04%), pressuring ZEC – high correlation in altcoins (~0.85). If BTC supports $69,163 / $66,558 / $63,954 break, ZEC LLs accelerate, $228 support tested. If BTC resistances $70,737 / $74,234 break, ZEC $269 retry possible. BTC Supertrend bearish, dominance rise creates selling pressure in alts. Watch: BTC below $69k – ZEC bearish BOS trigger.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall outlook bearish with LH/LL dominant; if $228 doesn’t hold, deep drop, if holds, local bounce to $269 resistance. BOS levels are trade triggers: Lower break continuation, upper break reversal candidate. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic – $269+ close required for HH/HL bullish shift, LLs sustain downtrend. Risk: High volatility, follow ZEC Spot Analysis and ZEC Futures Analysis. Wait for MTF confirmation for structure change.