Analysis: This cycle exhibits characteristics of a "reverse knock-off season," with structural weakening and increased divergence.
On February 7th, PANews analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that this cycle may have entered a "reverse altcoin season" unlike the traditional pattern. Historically, altcoin seasons typically involve a rotation of funds into altcoins after Bitcoin's rise, driving a general rise across the board. However, the current cycle is characterized more by structural weakening and increased divergence among altcoins. A review of the cycle shows that Bitcoin bottomed out around $15,000 after the FTX incident in November 2022, subsequently embarking on a bull market and reaching a high of around $126,000 in October 2025. However, during this period, the market did not experience a typical broad-based altcoin rally. Most altcoins exhibited characteristics such as breaking long-term trend channels, failing to hold key support levels, and increased downward volatility. In this environment, market opportunities are more concentrated in structural divergence and two-way trading, rather than a one-sided upward trend. From a market structure perspective, the current situation resembles a phase of selective deleveraging and valuation correction for altcoins, rather than a traditional full-blown altcoin bull market. In the short term, the market may continue its divergent pattern, and the structural downside risks have not yet been fully released.
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