Bernstein Gives Bold Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and take a step back from the daily price charts. Beneath the noise, some analysts believe Bitcoin’s latest downturn may be telling a very different story—one less about collapse and more about how the market itself is changing.

Crypto News of the Day: Bernstein Maintains $150,000 BTC Prediction

Bitcoin’s latest correction may feel familiar to crypto analysts, but experts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein argue that this cycle is fundamentally different from past downturns.

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In a recent note to clients, the firm described the current environment as the “weakest bitcoin bear case in its history.” In their opinion, the decline reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to the ecosystem.

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, reiterated a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026, citing:

A Bear Market Without a Crisis

Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have been triggered by systemic failures, hidden leverage, or major bankruptcies. Episodes such as the collapses of large crypto firms in previous cycles exposed structural weaknesses and triggered cascading liquidations.

Bernstein argues that none of those catalysts are present today. The analysts noted that there have been no major exchange failures, widespread balance sheet stress, or systemic breakdowns across the crypto industry, even as sentiment has deteriorated.

They also pointed to strong institutional alignment supporting the market, including spot Bitcoin ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from major asset managers.

According to the firm, these factors mark a clear departure from earlier cycles dominated by retail speculation and fragile infrastructure.

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In the analysts’ view, the current market narrative is more shaped by sentiment than by fundamentals.

Macro Pressures Drive Relative Weakness

Bernstein also addressed concerns about Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to gold during periods of macroeconomic stress.

The analysts said this divergence reflects Bitcoin’s continued behavior as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven.

High interest rates and tighter financial conditions have concentrated capital flows into defensive assets such as gold and into high-growth sectors like AI.

In contrast, Bitcoin remains more sensitive to shifts in global liquidity, meaning its recovery could be closely tied to changes in monetary policy and financial conditions.

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The firm expects Bitcoin’s ETF infrastructure and corporate capital-raising channels to play a significant role in absorbing new capital once liquidity conditions ease.

Structural Changes Reduce Downside Risks

Bernstein also dismissed concerns about leveraged corporate Bitcoin holdings and miner capitulation. The analysts noted that major corporate holders have structured liabilities to withstand prolonged downturns.

In one cited example, a large corporate holder, Strategy, would face balance-sheet restructuring only if Bitcoin fell to around $8,000 and remained there for several years.

Meanwhile, miners have increasingly diversified their revenue streams, including reallocating power capacity toward AI data center demand. This trend, according to the firm, has reduced pressure on mining economics and lowered the risk of forced selling during price declines.

The analysts also acknowledged the long-term risks posed by quantum computing. However, they argue that such threats are not unique to Bitcoin and would affect all critical digital and financial systems. This, the analysts say, is expected to transition to quantum-resistant standards over time.

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Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today: