Why Isn’t Cardano (ADA) Price Going Up? One Analyst Claims to Have Found the Reason

Crypto analyst Joao Wedson offered a noteworthy assessment of the underlying dynamics behind the recent weakness in Cardano (ADA) price.

According to Wedson, the downward trend in ADA is directly linked not only to price movements but also to structural changes in the futures market.

According to data shared by Wedson, the total open interest in ADA has decreased from $1.6 billion to $334 million. This sharp drop indicates that large whales and institutional investors are aggressively closing their ADA positions. However, according to the analyst, the crucial detail is which exchanges the open interest is concentrated on.

In 2023, Binance alone controlled over 80% of ADA open positions. The combined share of the other 17 exchanges remained below 20%. This indicated that leveraged trading was largely concentrated in a single location, allowing price movements to gain stronger momentum.

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However, by 2026, the picture had completely changed. Binance’s share of ADA open positions had fallen to 22%, while Gate.io took the lead with 31%. According to Wedson, the distribution of open positions across different exchanges is one of the key factors weakening the upward price momentum.

Wedson noted that a similar structural shift was observed in Solana (SOL). As SOL rose from $20 to $200 between the end of 2023 and 2024, Binance’s open interest dominance increased by 10%, reaching 52%.

However, after 2024, Binance’s market share began to decline again, and consequently, Solana’s price momentum also weakened significantly.

According to Wedson, the pattern is clear: When open positions are fragmented and Binance’s dominant position in the market diminishes, altcoins tend to lose their upward momentum. This is exactly what is happening with Cardano right now.

The analyst stated that strong altcoin rallies typically occur when leveraged trading is concentrated on a single major exchange, and that increased competition and liquidity distribution weaken price momentum.

*This is not investment advice.

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