NEAR Technical Analysis Feb 10

NEAR Protocol is maintaining the LH/LL down structure and is near critical supports at $1.03. For trend continuation, watch for a break below $1.0240; for change, monitor BOS above $1.1082.

Market Structure Overview

NEAR Protocol’s current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. The price is trading at $1.03, under negative pressure with a 24-hour change of -1.06%. The structure trading below short-term EMA20 ($1.23) reinforces the bearish short-term outlook. Although RSI at 27.81 is near oversold territory, MACD with a negative histogram shows momentum in the down direction. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 2S/4R on 1W. These levels are key points determining structural integrity. The Supertrend signal is bearish, and $1.33 resistance forms a strong barrier. Overall, the market is sustaining the LH/LL (Lower Highs/Lower Lows) pattern, meaning each new high and low stays below previous levels. This is a classic bearish structure supporting trend continuation. However, due to oversold RSI, there is a risk of a short-term bounce, but a strong BOS (Break of Structure) is needed for structural change.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL (Higher Highs/Higher Lows) structure is sought, but it is currently absent in NEAR. Holding above the recent swing low at $1.0240 (score 69/100) offers hope for HL formation, but as long as the price remains below EMA20, bullish continuation stays weak. The bullish target at $1.6890 (score 13/100) is distant and low probability. RSI may signal recovery from oversold, but it will be temporary unless the MACD bearish crossover is broken. If $1.1082 swing high is broken (score 70/100), the first BOS can confirm HL and initiate trend change.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend is dominant: LH/LL structure is clear. As long as it stays below the recent swing high at $1.0297 (score 62/100), LLs are forming. $0.8410 swing low (score 71/100) is strong support, but a break triggers bearish breakdown. Target $0.2034 (score 22/100). 24h range $0.99-$1.05 shows consolidation with low volatility – this can be read as consolidation for trend continuation. Movement synchronized with BTC downtrend adds extra risk for altcoins.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend change. Bullish BOS: Close above $1.1082 swing high – this breaks the recent LH, signals transition to HL, and opens path to $1.33 Supertrend resistance. Bearish BOS: Below $1.0240 swing low – confirms LL, accelerates to $0.8410. In MTF, 1W resistances (4 levels) are dominant, making upside BOS difficult. Volume increase is required for CHoCH (Change of Character); current low volume supports downside. If these levels are not breached, the current structure remains valid – wait for clear break for trend reversal.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $1.1082 (70/100 score, main resistance), $1.0297 (62/100, local LH). These points define the downtrend’s LHs. No HH forms without breaking $1.1082, meaning no bullish invalidation. Importance: Selling pressure increases on retests, targets for short positions.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $1.0240 (69/100, current support), $0.8410 (71/100, major S). Holding $1.0240 leads to bounce, break leads to cascade. Importance: LL breaks accelerate momentum, stop-loss levels for longs.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $69,928 in downtrend (24h -1.03%), Supertrend bearish. NEAR, a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; if BTC breaks $70,078 support, LH/LL deepens in alts. If BTC resistances $70,860/$74,308 are not overcome, NEAR $1.0240 risk increases. If BTC falls below $65,786, NEAR $0.8410 test likely. BTC dominance bearish, caution for altcoins: NEAR bullish difficult without BTC recovery. Watch: BTC $70k hold vs breakdown.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL continuation expected, BOS below $1.0240 targets $0.8410. For bullish, above $1.1082 required, CHoCH transitions to HH/HL. Even if oversold RSI bounces, EMA and MTF resistances block. Educational note: Market structure is defined by swings – BOS/CHoCH confirms reversal. Links for NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis. Note: No news, pure structure-focused.