APT Weekly Analysis Feb 10

APT, with a weekly 2.63% decline, is seeking a weak base at the $1.04 level while maintaining downward trend dominance. Oversold RSI (28.24) and critical support confluence suggest the potential start of an accumulation phase, but Bitcoin’s bearish structure is increasing pressure on altcoins.

Weekly Market Summary for APT

APTOS (APT) consolidated in a narrow $1.01-$1.08 band last week, experiencing a 2.63% loss and stabilizing at $1.04. Volume profile remained low at $50.89M, while the increase in Bitcoin dominance across the market limited altcoin rotation. In the bigger picture, APT is approaching a critical inflection point within the long-term downtrend; the price holding below EMA20 ($1.29) is supported by a bearish MACD histogram. This week, for position traders, the focus will be on the $0.90 support test and potential reversal signals. Market structure carries potential for transition from distribution phase to accumulation, but confirmation is awaited. Check spot data for detailed APT spot analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend character; the price is showing lower highs and lower lows after nearly 70% retracement from 2025 highs. On the weekly chart, Supertrend gives a bearish signal, while the 200-week SMA ($2.15) confirms the trend’s strength as a distant resistance. In the market cycle context, APT is in the distribution phase of the 2024-2025 bull cycle; macro factors like Fed rate cut expectations and crypto regulation uncertainty are fueling the downtrend. Trend persistence remains intact until $1.38 resistance is breached – this level aligns with the long-term channel upper band. For position traders, short bias dominates within the downtrend, but oversold conditions increase reversal risk.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis shows distribution patterns dominating in recent weeks: high-volume selling was seen at the $1.08 high, followed by low-volume consolidation. However, RSI dropping to 28.24 in the oversold zone signals potential accumulation base formation per Wyckoff methodology. In the volume profile, around $1.03 Value Area Low (VAL) offers a strong base, while $0.90 major support scores 76/100 as critical for accumulation. If price holds this level, transition to accumulation phase is possible with a spring test; otherwise, extended distribution and $0.22 downside target come into play. This phase transition should be confirmed by tracking smart money flows.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, price is testing $1.03 support (score 67/100), giving a recovery signal after bearish flag breakdown. RSI divergence (price new low, RSI higher low) creates bullish confluence; MACD histogram is negative but momentum is slowing. Bearish short-term filter active below EMA20, resistance at $1.18 (score 63/100). Out of 7 strong levels, daily shows 2 support/1 resistance confluence, supporting upside probe with $1.03 hold. Track futures open interest with APT futures market data.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective, a $1.04 hammer candle formation within the downtrend channel stands out; this provides confluence for potential reversal. Although 1W Supertrend is bearish, $0.90 major support (76/100) overlaps with the channel lower band. Similar 2S/1R breakdown on the 3-day timeframe; overall confluence signals bullish phase shift with support hold. Long-term MAs (50W $1.45) form a resistance cluster, while trend structure remains intact unless $0.90 breaks.

Critical Decision Points

Key inflection points that will determine direction: Major support $0.9000 (76/100, multi-TF confluence), $1.0317 (67/100, daily VAL). Resistances $1.1833 (63/100), $1.38 (trend filter), $1.85 upside objective. Breakdown below $0.90 opens $0.22 risk, while breakout above $1.18 validates $1.85 target. R/R ratio is strategic: Upside 1.78x, downside 4.5x risk – position sizing should be adjusted accordingly. Monitor weekly closes at these levels.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In the Bullish Case

Bullish scenario triggers with $1.03 hold and $1.18 breakout: Long positions at $1.05 entry, $1.18 stop-loss, $1.85 target (R/R 3:1). Wait for RSI>40 and volume spike for accumulation phase confirmation. Partial profit at $1.38, trail stop to channel midline. BTC above $70K supports altcoin rotation.

In the Bearish Case

Bearish scenario activates on $1.03 breakdown: Short at $1.02 entry, $1.08 stop, $0.90 first target, extended $0.22. Monitor MACD bearish cross and volume increase for distribution continuation. Keep risk low, position max %2-3.

Bitcoin Correlation

APT shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85); BTC downtrend ($70,353, -0.10%) and bearish Supertrend signal are pressuring altcoins. If BTC key supports $69,770 / $65,786 break, APT $0.90 test accelerates; resistance hold at $70,932 allows relief rally. BTC dominance rise weakens APT relative strength – BTC breakout above $74K carries APT upside to $1.85. Altcoin traders should use BTC levels as primary filter. For broader market view, see APT and other analyses.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $1.03/$0.90 support test, BTC $70K dynamics, and RSI divergence confirmation. While trend structure keeps downtrend intact, $0.90 hold is essential for accumulation signals. Position traders stay R/R focused, monitor macro news flow (Fed/crypto reg) – wait for multi-TF confluence for reversal.