Analyst Predicts Solana Price Crash to $40, But There’s a Catch

Key Insights:

• Solana price action has now confirmed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern across several time frames.
• SOL price might need more time than many traders expect before it can push cleanly above $280.
• A top analyst added that the move set up a possible downside target near $50 for SOL.

Solana price action has now confirmed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern across several time frames. That shift has put a downside target for SOL price near the $50 level back on the table, based on how the setup typically plays out once the neckline gives way.

This warning also landed just weeks after a leading analyst argued that SOL might need more time than many traders expect before it can push cleanly above $280.

In that January view, the reason was straightforward: several onchain signals and derivatives indicators had cooled off after recently hitting local highs.

Still, the same expert view suggested the longer-term upside story was not dead. SOL can still make another run at its $295 all-time high from Jan. 19. However, the softer data has raised a more immediate worry, namely whether the latest wave of inflows has enough strength to last.

Bearish Setup Points Solana Price Toward $42 Target

Solana price has already shed more than 72% from its cycle peak near $295, set in January 2025. As the sell-off deepened, the chart action also completed a head-and-shoulders pattern across multiple time frames.

The market participants often deem this setup as a sign of a potential downtrend. Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus highlighted the move by sharing a chart that showed the pattern getting confirmed.

In their view, the breakdown keeps the downside risk firmly in play. Bitcoinsensus said in a Monday post on X that Solana had now broken down from a larger head-and-shoulders pattern.

The analyst added that the move set up a possible downside target near $50 for Solana (SOL) price. Nextiscrypto said Solana’s two-week chart showed a textbook head-and-shoulders setup. In that view, the pattern’s measured move pointed to roughly $45.

However, other traders argued the downside could stretch further. A pseudonymous analyst who goes by Shitpoastin said the monthly chart had built what they described as a massive head-and-shoulders formation over the past two years.

They added that, if that breakdown plays out, the Solana price chart shows little meaningful support until around $30.

Using the standard measured-move method, the downside target comes in around $57. That level implies roughly a 32% drop from where SOL price trades now, based on the chart projection.

SOL Price Rebounds From $75 as MVRV Metrics Suggest Downside Exhaustion

The Solana price sell-off last week finally hit a wall around $75. That level lines up with the lowest edge of its MVRV extreme deviation bands, a zone traders often watch for signs that price has stretched too far.

These bands track how far SOL trades from the average price at which coins last changed hands. In simple terms, they help show when the market may be pricing SOL well below, or well above, what recent holders paid.

In past market cycles, Solana price action has often slid down to the lowest MVRV band before it finally found a real bottom. Sometimes it even dipped a bit below it first. Because of that, many traders treat this zone as a rough “stress test” level, where heavy selling can start to run out of steam.

One example came in March 2022. SOL price tested the lowest band near $75 and then ripped higher, climbing about 87% in roughly three weeks to around $140. A comparable snapback also showed up earlier in December 2020, when price bounced after touching the same kind of extreme zone.

In earlier cycles, Solana price usually didn’t find its floor until it dropped into the lowest MVRV band. At times, it even slipped a little below it first. That’s why traders keep an eye on this area; it’s often where the selling starts to fade.

That history adds a caution flag today. If SOL price loses $75 in a clean way, the move could mark the start of a deeper leg down, similar to what played out in 2022. In that case, the next stop could also line up with the downside target flagged by the head-and-shoulders setup.