Bitcoin Near Lows, Sentiment Split

Bitcoin has drifted closer to the $69,500 zone, showing that sellers are still active on every bounce. The market is struggling to build momentum, and many traders believe the final bottom may still be ahead. Veteran trader BitBull said BTC’s true bottom could form below $50,000, where a large portion of ETF buyers would be underwater, potentially creating maximum fear. On the other side, sentiment platform Santiment struck a more balanced tone, noting that on-chain and social data suggest the earlier dip toward $60,000 may have marked a meaningful bottom, provided price can hold key support and large holders continue to accumulate slowly. Another data point leaning cautiously bullish is the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio, which has fallen to around -10. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, such extreme readings have historically appeared near the later stages of bear markets, signaling that downside risk may be compressing even if volatility remains high. While this does not confirm a trend reversal, it suggests risk-to-reward is becoming more attractive for patient participants.

Investment flows continue to reflect uncertainty but are showing early signs of stabilization. Crypto investment products recorded a third straight week of outflows, but the pace slowed sharply to $187 million, down from more than $3.4 billion over the prior two weeks. Bitcoin-focused products bore the brunt of the selling, with $264 million in outflows, while XRP stood out with strong inflows of $63 million. Ether and Solana also posted modest gains, indicating selective rotation rather than broad capitulation. Analysts at CoinShares noted that changes in the pace of flows often matter more than the raw numbers, and the slowdown in outflows could hint that selling pressure is starting to ease after BTC touched its lowest levels since late 2024.

Coinbase slid back onto the Super Bowl stage this year with a 60-second spot reviving the Backstreet Boys’ 1997 hit “Everybody (Backstreet’s Back).” Instead of hashes, charts, or TPS stats, the exchange leaned into pure nostalgia as its main alpha signal. The flashing lyrics turned the room into an accidental crypto-karaoke session before the Coinbase logo dropped. Marketing chief Catherine Ferdon framed it as “a shared experience” showing how the crypto community has matured on- and off-chain. The reaction online was wildly split, splitting the CT narrative down the middle. One X commenter swore, “the room ERUPTED in boos when we found out it was a Coinbase ad.” By contrast, another watch-party crowd chimed that “half the room was singing along and laughed when Coinbase popped up.” CEO Brian Armstrong jumped on X to argue that most people half-watch commercials in noisy rooms, so only a meme-rich, degen-style spot can actually break through. Coinbase fired one final clap-back at critics: “If you’re talking about it, it worked,” treating controversy as guaranteed liquidity instead of PR slippage. In crypto-marketing terms, the ad read like a high-volume pump and rekt-marketing cyclical play at once.

ARK Invest trimmed its Coinbase exposure again while reallocating toward other digital asset platforms, showing that even long-term believers are actively adjusting positioning in this volatile phase. Meanwhile, Beast Industries’ move into digital banking through the acquisition of Step highlights how crypto, fintech, and creator-driven platforms are increasingly converging, especially with younger users who may shape the next adoption wave.

The broader crypto market remains fragile, with Bitcoin struggling to reclaim key resistance and sentiment still leaning cautious. Short-term rallies are likely to face selling until BTC can hold above the $70,000–$72,000 zone with conviction. Flow data suggests forced selling may be slowing, but confidence has not yet returned. Altcoins are showing mixed signals, with selective strength in XRP while others lag. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders react to macro headlines and ETF flows. Any sustained recovery will likely require steady whale accumulation and a clear shift in institutional flows. If BTC loses the $60,000–$65,000 support region, downside risk increases sharply. Conversely, holding above that zone could set the stage for a base-building phase. For now, the market favors cautious positioning over aggressive bets. Patience and risk management remain key as the market searches for a durable bottom.

Bitcoin’s bounce is losing steam just below the former support at $74,508, showing that sellers are trying to turn this level into fresh resistance. The downward-sloping 20-day EMA near $78,142 and an RSI stuck in negative territory tell the same story: bears still have the upper hand. If BTC rolls over from current levels or gets rejected again at the 20-day EMA, sellers are likely to press their advantage and drag the price toward the $60,000 zone. That area now stands out as the next major downside target if momentum weakens further. This bearish setup would start to fade only if Bitcoin manages a clean break and close above the 20-day EMA, which would signal that buyers are stepping in with conviction. If that happens, BTC could attempt a recovery move toward the 50-day SMA around $86,636.

Ether’s relief bounce is running into supply near $2,111, but the encouraging sign for bulls is that price has not slipped sharply after the rejection. This suggests buyers are still active at lower levels and are trying to build a base. A decisive close above $2,111 would improve sentiment and could push ETH toward the 20-day EMA at $2,447, a level that will likely attract strong selling. If bulls manage to flip the 20-day EMA into support, the next upside target sits near the 50-day SMA at $2,877. On the flip side, if sellers defend $2,111 and force ETH lower, the downside risk increases. A break below current support could expose the $1,750 level, and failure there may open the door toward $1,537.

BNB’s recovery attempt is struggling near the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $676, showing that sellers remain active on rallies. If BNB slips back below $602, bears will likely target the $570 support zone. A breakdown there could accelerate losses toward the psychological $500 level. Bulls need a strong push above $676 to regain control, which could lift price toward the $730 breakdown area. The $730–$790 zone remains a heavy supply area, but a breakout above it would signal that momentum is shifting back to the upside. In that case, BNB could make a run toward the 50-day SMA near $849.

Bitcoin remains in a fragile recovery phase, with $74,508 acting as a key decision point. As long as BTC stays below the 20-day EMA, rallies are likely to be sold into. A move above the 20-day EMA would be the first signal that downside pressure is easing. Failure to reclaim that level keeps $60,000 firmly on the radar. Ether is showing early signs of stabilization, but it must reclaim $2,111 to build bullish momentum. The $2,447 area is the real test for ETH bulls in the short term. If ETH gets rejected there, downside risk remains elevated. BNB is still trading defensively, with sellers controlling rallies below $676. Bulls need a clean breakout above $730 to confirm a trend shift. Until then, the broader market remains cautious, favoring short-term trades and tight risk management over aggressive positioning.

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