XRP Enters Rare Oversold Zone That Historically Triggered Sharp Rebounds

XRP has slipped into one of its most extreme technical conditions in over a decade, as momentum indicators point to capitulation rather than steady distribution.

The move follows a prolonged downtrend that accelerated after the broader crypto market weakened in late 2025, pushing XRP into territory that has historically marked inflection points rather than trend continuation.

According to recent analysis shared by TheCryptoBasic, XRP’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dropped to 17, a level reached only once before in the past twelve years. Price briefly traded near the $1.11 area during the sell-off, before stabilizing around $1.43, reflecting aggressive downside momentum paired with visible exhaustion.

What the Chart Shows

The chart highlights XRP/USD on the daily timeframe alongside RSI, revealing a clear breakdown in price structure since Q4 2025. XRP has declined by nearly 50%, falling from $2.84 to current levels. As price compressed lower, RSI moved deep into oversold territory, breaking below the widely watched 30 threshold and continuing toward extreme lows.

Historically, similar RSI readings have coincided with panic-driven sell-offs rather than orderly distribution. In prior instances, such conditions preceded rapid rebounds as selling pressure became saturated and marginal sellers were exhausted.

Historical Context of Extreme RSI Readings

This is only the second time XRP’s daily RSI has reached such depressed levels since 2014. Comparable setups occurred during:

• September 2021 – May 2022, a prolonged consolidation phase that followed a sharp decline

• April and July 2024, when RSI dips below 30 were followed by rebounds ranging from 35% to 65% within days to weeks

• October 2025, when RSI near 26 coincided with a local low around $1.58, followed by a sharp recovery

In each case, the RSI extreme did not mark the end of volatility, but it did coincide with the end of one-sided selling.

Market Structure Behind the Sell-Off

Since Q4 2025, XRP has been under sustained pressure as broader crypto liquidity tightened. The sharp decline in early February marked XRP’s largest single-day drop in five years, with price falling nearly 20% in one session. That move pushed RSI into its current extreme, reflecting forced selling rather than gradual repositioning.

Notably, the sell-off occurred alongside a broader market drawdown that erased hundreds of billions in crypto market capitalization, suggesting systemic stress rather than XRP-specific weakness.

What Typically Follows

Analysts cited by TheCryptoBasic note that previous occurrences of similar RSI conditions were followed by 15%–40% rebounds, often within one to two weeks. These moves were not trend reversals, but relief rallies driven by mean reversion and short-covering once downside momentum stalled.

That said, oversold conditions alone do not guarantee upside continuation. In prior cycles, rebounds often occurred within broader consolidation ranges before the market established a clearer directional bias.

A Market at an Inflection Point

XRP’s current setup reflects a market caught between exhaustion and uncertainty. The technical picture shows extreme oversold momentum rarely seen in XRP’s history, while price remains well below prior support zones. Whether this leads to a short-term relief rally or an extended consolidation will depend on how quickly selling pressure fades and whether broader market conditions stabilize.

For now, the data suggests XRP is no longer in a phase of accelerating downside momentum, but in a zone where historical behavior has shifted from panic toward stabilization.

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