Roblox (RBLX) Stock Climbs 10% on Analyst Upgrade and Growth Forecast

TLDR

• Roblox stock surged 10% to $73.45 Monday after Roth MKM upgraded shares to Buy with an $84 price target
• Analyst expects bookings to grow over 20% annually for multiple years following stronger-than-expected 2026 guidance
• Adult users aged 18+ grew 50% in 2025 and spend 40% more than younger players on the platform
• New game “Survive LAVA for Brainrots!” reached 60 million visits in just 10 days, faster than previous viral hits
• Average analyst price target of $110.87 suggests 51% upside potential from current levels

Roblox shares jumped approximately 10% Monday, closing at $73.45 after a Wall Street analyst upgrade sparked renewed investor interest in the gaming platform.

Roblox Corporation, RBLX

Roth MKM analyst Eric Handler raised his rating on RBLX stock from Neutral to Buy. He also increased his price target from $78 to $84, representing 14% potential upside.

The upgrade followed Roblox’s fourth-quarter earnings report on February 5. Shares have climbed 11% since the earnings release but remain below January price levels.

Handler cited stronger-than-expected 2026 bookings guidance as his primary reason for turning bullish. The analyst projects bookings will grow more than 20% annually over the coming years.

Platform Enhancements Fuel Optimism

The analyst highlighted ongoing improvements to Roblox’s creator tools as a key growth driver. These upgrades enable developers to build higher-quality games on the platform.

Enhanced games attract more users. Increased user activity drives higher spending levels. Handler believes this positive cycle can sustain growth momentum.

Recent viral game launches support this thesis. “Survive LAVA for Brainrots!” launched January 30 and accumulated 60 million lifetime visits within 10 days.

The game reached 17.1 million visits Sunday alone. This represents faster scaling than predecessor “Escape Tsunami for Brainrots!” which needed 26 days to hit similar metrics.

BMO Capital noted the Brainrot-themed game category is becoming core to the platform. The steady stream of new titles in this genre demonstrates strong creator participation.

Adult User Growth Changes Revenue Mix

Roblox’s user base demographics are shifting. The platform’s 18-plus age group expanded roughly 50% during 2025.

These older players generate substantially more revenue. Adult users spend about 40% more than younger players, according to Roth’s research.

This demographic evolution addresses previous concerns about growth limitations. It also creates new monetization pathways for the company.

The platform now serves 144 million daily active users, up 69% year-over-year. Users engage with over 24 unique experiences monthly in 2025, a double-digit increase from 2024.

Games outside the top-10 rankings showed strong performance. These experiences grew engagement by 68% and bookings by 53%, both accelerating from third-quarter 2025 results.

Wall Street Outlook

BMO Capital maintained an Outperform rating with a $160 price target. The firm said Roblox is well-positioned to capitalize on AI advancements in gaming.

Consensus among 23 Wall Street analysts shows a Moderate Buy rating. This includes 17 Buy recommendations, five Hold ratings, and one Sell rating issued over the past three months.

The average analyst price target stands at $110.87. This implies 51% upside potential from Monday’s closing price.

Piper Sandler kept an Overweight rating but reduced its price target to $100. The firm noted fourth-quarter bookings grew 63% year-over-year, beating expectations by 8%.

TD Cowen held a Sell rating, citing engagement trend concerns despite strong bookings. Jefferies maintained a Hold rating with a $70 price target following the quarterly results.

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