Tesla (TSLA) Stock Gains as Musk Projects Robotaxi Expansion Plans

TLDR

• Tesla stock jumped 1.5% to $417.32 Monday, establishing support near $390 after previous week’s 8% decline
• Musk claims robotaxi fleet will double monthly and reach 25-50% of U.S. by December, though historical promises raise doubts
• 13-year Tesla veteran VP Raj Jegannathan exits amid company shift from Model S/X to Optimus robot production
• Analysts remain cautious with only 40% Buy ratings versus 55% S&P 500 average as stock trades at 200x forward earnings
• Tesla plans record $20 billion capex in 2026 but may produce no free cash flow through 2027

Tesla stock rose 1.5% Monday, closing at $417.32 after establishing what may be a critical support level. The move follows Friday’s 3.5% rally after a brutal week that saw shares drop nearly 8%.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The stock has struggled since fourth-quarter earnings on January 28, falling about 5%. But the $390 price point appears to be holding firm, matching support levels from November.

CEO Elon Musk delivered an update on robotaxis during the earnings call. He said over 500 robotaxis now operate in Austin and San Francisco carrying paid riders.

Musk projected monthly doubling of the fleet. He expects coverage in 25-50% of America by year-end, pending regulatory approvals.

Robotaxi Promises Face Scrutiny

Independent tracking data tells a different story. Robotaxi Tracker reports only four of Tesla’s 58 Austin vehicles operate fully unsupervised, contradicting Musk’s claims.

This isn’t Musk’s first optimistic timeline. In 2019, he promised 1 million robotaxis by 2020. He recently posted on X that robotaxi and Optimus production would be “agonizingly slow.”

Crash rate concerns and regulatory hurdles could delay expansion plans. Cybercab production won’t begin until April at the earliest.

Tesla is ending Model S and X production lines to make room for Optimus humanoid robots. The company announced $20 billion in capital spending for 2026, more than double last year.

Wall Street Remains Skeptical

Analyst sentiment tells the story. Only 40% rate Tesla as Buy compared to the 55% S&P 500 average.

The average price target sits at $420, barely $5 above current levels. That’s minimal movement considering Tesla’s massive strategic shifts.

The stock trades at over 200 times forward earnings. Some analysts don’t expect free cash flow generation in 2026 or 2027.

Executive Departure Adds Uncertainty

Vice President Raj Jegannathan announced his exit Monday after 13 years. His most recent role covered IT, AI infrastructure, business apps and information security.

Jegannathan previously ran North American sales after Troy Jones was dismissed. Tesla’s 2025 revenue fell 3%, the first annual decline ever recorded.

The company battles multiple headwinds. An aging EV lineup and consumer backlash over Musk’s political activities have damaged brand perception.

The $390 support level could provide a springboard for gains if it holds. Investors await major catalysts like robotaxi city expansions or the third-generation Optimus unveiling.

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