Polymarket and Kaito will launch prediction pairs based on social media mindshare

Polymarket will partner with Kaito AI, the popularity-focused aggregator. The prediction platform may launch markets based on popularity and opinion. 

Polymarket may open markets for the influence and popularity of trends, brands, and people. The prediction market partnered with Kaito AI, one of the leading influence-tracking and SocialFi platforms. 

The partnership arrived just weeks after Kaito had to reinvent its model. After X revoked access to its API for SocialFi projects, Kaito switched to other metrics of popularity and influence. 

On its side, Polymarket kept offering a wider variety of small markets, with a test run of ‘attention markets’ in January. 

Polymarket is quick to expand to new areas of interest, including the recent AI agent trend, Moltbook.

Polymarket to track public attention

Polymarket has mostly focused on organic events and politics for its markets. Attention markets will be a novel way to track trends and influence. 

‘These new markets will quantify the volume and changes in public attention based on data from social media,’ said Kaito CEO Yu Hu.

Polymarket and Kaito will still track data across X, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, using Kaito’s method of determining mindshare. The tracking will also produce a positive or negative sentiment metric. 

Based on the data, Polymarket will be able to launch new pairs, such as the sentiment on companies or VIPs. Polymarket has already launched other markets powered by Kaito, including the tracking of its own mindshare. 

Dozens of attention markets are expected in March

Dozens of new attention markets are expected in early March, and thousands by the end of the year. Attention markets can also track individual influencers or KOLs in the crypto space and general social media circles. Polymarket will offer a way to tokenize and trade Internet celebrity events and trends. 

Attention markets are yet another trend somewhat similar to current news tokens or content-based memes, which track short-term Internet news or events.

‘It’ll be a completely new experience when people can scroll through social media and realize they can express their views on what they are seeing and take a side with it on these markets,’ said Polymarket’s head of crypto, Thibault Alizard.

Currently, the focus of Polymarket is on specific personalities and events, but it may broaden to AI topics and even more niche Internet events. 

Polymarket still carries peak activity

Polymarket still carries near-peak activity based on active wallets and transactions. Most of the platform’s users trade five or more pairs, but a growing number only choose one market. 

Most of the bets are made for markets with 40% to 60% probability, with only 0.5% of all bets placed on odds below 5%. Those low-probability bets are used for trading in a small range, often leading to 100% growth. 

Polymarket predictions now carry relatively small volumes. The leading pair on potential US strikes on Iran reached a volume of $282M, while the next Fed decision invited over $82M in trading. Other pairs are smaller, with volumes often under $1M. 

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