AR Technical Analysis Feb 10

AR is stuck in the oversold region with RSI at 18; momentum is weak but possible bullish divergences could signal a recovery. The MACD histogram continues negative pressure while EMA bands confirm a strong downtrend.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

AR’s current price is at the $1.84 level and remained limited within the daily range of 1.84-1.96 with a 5.64% decline over the last 24 hours. Volume is low at 14.14 million dollars, indicating weak momentum. The overall trend continues as a downtrend; the price remains below EMA20 ($2.58) and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, with resistance around $2.62. Although momentum oscillators give oversold signals, the lack of volume confirmation makes a trend change difficult. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 7 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, similar distribution on 3D, and 2S/2R on 1W. These levels will be key test points for momentum. In the short term, the $1.78 support is critical; if broken, bearish targets come into play; above, the $1.90 resistance must be overcome. Momentum strength is low, but the RSI’s extreme level holds notable potential.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI(14) is currently at the 18 level, signaling consolidation deep in the oversold region. Recently, while the price made new lows (1.84), a slight higher low formation is observed in RSI; this could be an early signal of a regular bullish divergence. On the daily chart, despite the sharp drop from 1.96 to 1.84, RSI held without falling below 25, carrying potential for a hidden bullish divergence. These divergences indicate that momentum is starting to exhaust and preparing the ground for a possible reversal. However, the divergence must be confirmed with volume; the current low volume (14M) weakens this signal. The weekly RSI is also under pressure below 30, with long-term momentum weak, but if divergences strengthen, the 50 level becomes the first target. RSI breaking above 30 will be the key signal for short-term momentum recovery.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

The oversold region (below 30) dominates the RSI; a low value like 18 has historically led to strong rebounds. In AR’s past data, similar RSI levels (e.g., 15 at the 2023 bottom) were followed by 20-30% recoveries. The current position implies that selling pressure has gone overboard and smart money has shifted to accumulation. However, since the trend is down, this oversold bounce may remain limited. An RSI jump toward 50 would strengthen momentum confluence.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in a bearish position; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding with negative bars. Over the last 24 hours, histogram bars dipped deeper into negative territory, confirming selling momentum, but the expansion speed is slowing – signaling that momentum has peaked and contraction may follow. On the daily chart, the MACD line is under pressure below the zero line, with the crossover remaining bearish. The histogram starting to narrow in negative territory (last 3 bars) shows divergence-like weakening; histogram depth decreased as price fell. This suggests declining selling strength and preparation for a possible histogram zero crossover. Although short-term MACD(12,26,9) parameters support the downtrend, the signal line carries potential for an upward crossover if supported by RSI. MACD expansion without volume matching increases fakeout risk.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price remains below EMA20 ($2.58), with compression between EMA10 and EMA50 forming a bearish ribbon. Short-term EMAs (8-21) are downward sloping and pressuring the price; this dynamic reflects weak short-term trend strength in momentum. The ribbon’s narrowing signals pre-consolidation, but down bias dominates. A test of EMA21 (around 2.10) is expected to elicit a reaction.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Medium-term EMA50 (around 2.20) and EMA200 (above 3.00) are strong resistances; as long as price stays below them, trend strength remains bearish. The EMA ribbon between 50-200 is widely sloping downward, with this trend strength gauge showing the downtrend’s solidity. If long-term support falls below EMA200, momentum weakens further, but current oversold conditions could trigger a reaction. Ribbon flattening would signal reversal.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is at the 69,562 dollar level with a 1.42% decline in a downtrend; Supertrend is bearish and main supports are 69,297-65,786. AR is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC’s failure to break 70,827 resistance increases pressure on altcoins. If BTC dominance rises, alts like AR fall harder; if BTC drops below 65k, AR tests 1.78 support. Conversely, if BTC jumps to 77k, AR momentum revives, targeting 1.90R. BTC key levels: Support 69k/65k, Resistance 70k/77k – AR traders should monitor BTC via AR Spot Analysis and AR Futures Analysis.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

Momentum oscillators are mixed: RSI at 18 oversold with possible bullish divergence carries bounce potential, while MACD negative histogram and EMA bearish ribbon dominate the downtrend. Volume is low (14M), accumulation/distribution weak; recovery remains limited without strong volume. MTF confluence should focus around 1.78S (87/100) and 1.90R (63/100). In the short term, oversold rebound could test 1.90-2.10, but BTC downtrend and EMA pressure prevent breakout. In the long term, bullish targets up to 3.42 could emerge with divergence confirmation; in the bearish scenario, below 1.78 weakness increases. Momentum strength is low; patience and level tracking are essential. In this analysis, we recommend risk management by prioritizing momentum confluence.