XRP Price Prediction: 65% Drop as IPO Nears — Turning Point or More Pain?

XRP is trading near $1.36 after suffering a steep correction of roughly 65% from its recent local highs, as broader crypto weakness and derivatives deleveraging weigh on sentiment. The decline comes at a pivotal time, with Ripple reportedly nearing a $40 billion IPO valuation, adding a new layer of speculation around the token’s outlook.

While the IPO narrative has reignited interest across the XRP community, the token’s price action remains driven by technical levels and positioning flows rather than corporate headlines alone.

Ripple IPO buzz meets market reset

Ripple’s reported valuation of nearly $40 billion places it among the largest private fintech firms globally. The potential IPO has sparked debate about whether increased public exposure could indirectly benefit XRP.

However, Ripple equity and XRP remain separate assets. Stock investors will likely focus on revenue growth, partnerships, and financial performance rather than the token itself. That said, IPO-related headlines could trigger short-term volatility spikes as retail interest intensifies.

For now, XRP’s price reflects caution rather than euphoria.

Derivatives deleveraging signals reset phase

One of the most important developments has been the sharp unwind in XRP futures markets. Over the past month, open interest across major exchanges has dropped significantly, indicating aggressive deleveraging rather than fresh speculative positioning.

Binance, Bybit, Kraken, and OKX have all seen large reductions in XRP futures exposure. This type of reset often follows periods of excessive leverage and can precede major directional moves.

XRP is currently hovering around $1.36–$1.38, a zone that represents both a psychological pivot and a structural support area. Historically, sharp deleveraging events tend to clear out weak hands before a larger move unfolds.

Whether that move resolves upward or downward depends on how quickly momentum returns.

Key technical levels: $1.20 support, $1.70 resistance

From a technical perspective, strong demand has consistently appeared in the $1.00–$1.20 range. This area aligns with high-volume nodes and historical support, making it a critical floor for bulls.

On the upside, the $1.65–$1.70 zone remains the key resistance band. A decisive break above this level could open the door toward $2.50–$3.30 in an extended bullish scenario, particularly if broader crypto sentiment stabilizes.

Recent whale activity has added to speculation. A transfer of over 116 million XRP, worth roughly $165 million, moved between major exchanges. While large transactions often trigger fear of sell-offs, order book data did not show immediate heavy distribution, suggesting liquidity rebalancing rather than panic dumping.

XRP 6-month price prediction

CoinCodex’s XRP price prediction suggests gradual stabilization in the near term before a potential expansion phase later in the year.

For February, the model projects a range between $1.33 and $1.54. March and April forecasts continue to cluster in the $1.40–$1.60 zone, indicating consolidation rather than immediate recovery.

Momentum is expected to strengthen into mid-2026. By July, XRP is projected to trade as high as $2.02, representing a potential 49% upside from current levels if market conditions improve.

The structure suggests that XRP may be in a reset phase rather than the start of a prolonged collapse.

Turning point or more pain?

The 65% drawdown reflects broader risk aversion and leverage unwinds rather than a fundamental breakdown in the XRP ecosystem. With derivatives exposure cooling, key support holding, and IPO speculation building, XRP sits at a crossroads.

If support near $1.20 holds and open interest begins rising again alongside price, a recovery phase could unfold. However, failure to defend this zone may expose further downside toward the $1.00 level.

For now, XRP’s next major move will likely be determined not by headlines, but by whether the current market reset transitions into renewed conviction.