SHOP Stock Forecast: Rapid Growth Pushes Price Up 11% Despite Shopify Earnings Miss

Shopify surged more than 11% in premarket trading after delivering strong revenue growth and announcing a $2 billion share buyback program, overcoming a modest earnings miss in its fourth-quarter results.

Shares closed at $127.24 before jumping toward $141 in early trading, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company’s 2026 outlook.

Revenue strength offsets EPS miss

Shopify reported adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share for Q4, slightly below analyst expectations of $0.50. However, revenue climbed 31% year over year to $3.67 billion, beating forecasts of $3.59 billion.

Gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 31% to $123.8 billion, exceeding expectations for a 28% gain. Gross profit reached $1.69 billion, up more than 25% from the prior year.

For the first quarter of 2026, Shopify expects revenue growth in the “low-thirties” percentage range, well above Wall Street’s 25% estimate. The company also projects profit growth in the high-twenties percentage range, signaling continued operating momentum.

Full-year 2025 performance

For the full year, Shopify generated $11.56 billion in revenue, up 30% year over year. Gross profit increased 24% to $5.56 billion, representing 48% of total revenue.

Income from operations rose to $1.47 billion from $1.08 billion in 2024. Net income came in at $1.23 billion. The company processed $378.4 billion in GMV during 2025, reflecting a 29% increase.

The United States accounted for 44% of total revenue, with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa contributing 31%, and Asia Pacific 16%.

$2 billion buyback signals confidence

Shopify’s board authorized a $2 billion share repurchase program, which will be executed using pre-arranged algorithmic trading plans.

The company ended 2025 with $5.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, giving it flexibility to fund both buybacks and strategic growth initiatives.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Hoffmeister said the repurchase program reflects financial strength and confidence in long-term cash flow generation.

AI integration and market expansion

Shopify continues expanding AI-powered tools such as Sidekick and Agentic Storefronts to improve merchant productivity and customer engagement. The company is also investing in international expansion and strengthening merchant solutions like Shopify Payments and Shopify Capital.

Despite macro pressures, including tariffs and broader tech sector volatility, Shopify’s growth trajectory remains intact.

Analyst price target and Wall Street outlook

SHOP price targets and forecast. Source: TradingView

Wall Street analysts remain broadly constructive on Shopify despite the earnings miss.

The average 12-month price target stands at $180.09, implying roughly 58% upside from the current $113–$127 range prior to the earnings spike. Estimates range from a low of $129.79 to a high of $219.94, highlighting a wide dispersion of views but clear upside bias overall.

Out of 54 analysts covering the stock:

• 29 rate it Strong Buy
• 6 rate it Buy
• 18 rate it Hold
• 0 rate it Sell
• 1 rates it Strong Sell

The consensus rating leans firmly toward Buy, reflecting confidence in Shopify’s long-term growth trajectory, expanding market share, and improving profitability profile.