Prediction Market Open Interest Crosses $1B as Super Bowl Boosts Bets

Open interest (OI) across crypto prediction markets just hit $1 billion for the first time, a surge likely fueled by increased activity around the 2026 Super Bowl.

According to data from Artemis, open interest across platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, and others, jumped above $1.1 billion for the first time on Feb. 7, setting a new all-time high. OI indicates the value of all currently active positions — in this case, the “yes” or “no” positions across predictions — that have yet to be resolved, making it an indicator of capital inflow and liquidity.

As for spot volume, it also reached a new historic record of $1.4 billion across platforms, with Kalshi generating $800 million and Polymarket about $311 million on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 8, Artemis data shows.

Digging into sectors where users placed the most bets, sports led with $375.3 million, while politics was close behind at $359.7 million, and culture trails at $84.5 million, according to data from crypto venture capital firm Paradigm’s new dashboard, which tracks liquidity across sectors on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest marketplaces by OI and trading volume.

But the growing interest in placing bets on real-world outcomes doesn’t come without risks. In a recent report, analysts at blockchain security firm CertiK warned that despite the surge, prediction markets are still exposed to security risks like oracle attacks, admin key vulnerabilities and front-running.

The firm also warned that artificial volume on prediction markets reached 60% on some platforms “during airdrop farming peaks, distorting liquidity metrics, while probability outputs remained reliable for forecasting.”

The spike in prediction market OI coincided with news that Jump Trading, a high-frequency trading firm, is reportedly set to gain small stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9, citing sources familiar with the matter.