Bank of America Eyes $309 Amid Tight Supply

Silver has entered 2026 with explosive momentum, surging over 150% year-to-date to trade around $82–84 per ounce after briefly exceeding $120 earlier this year. Even after recent profit-taking, the metal’s structural bull case remains intact, driven by persistent supply deficits and surging investment demand, setting the stage for further gains.

Current Market Snapshot

The spot price has pulled back from January peaks but holds above key technical supports near $80, with futures for later in 2026 priced in the mid-80s range. This consolidation follows a massive rally fueled by industrial buying and safe-haven flows, though short-term volatility persists amid profit-taking and mixed macro signals.

On-chain metrics and COMEX data show elevated open interest, hinting at potential swings as leveraged positions unwind. Recent data indicates COMEX silver stocks at multi-year lows, exacerbating tightness, while physical premiums in Asia remain elevated, signaling strong retail appetite despite spot weakness.

2026 Outlook and Bank Projections

Analysts project a sixth straight year of global silver deficits, with demand outpacing supply by tens of millions of ounces despite softer industrial use in solar and electronics. Investment demand via ETFs, coins, and bars is forecast to jump 20%, offsetting any manufacturing slowdowns and compressing the gold-silver ratio toward historical bull-market norms.

Bank of America leads the bullish charge, forecasting silver could hit $309 per ounce by year-end if ratio compression accelerates alongside monetary easing and ETF inflows, implying over 250% upside from here. Consensus targets cluster at $90-150, with outliers like $170+ if deficits widen; pullbacks to $70–75 are seen as buy zones in this regime.

JPMorgan and others echo this, citing underinvestment and green-tech tailwinds as key drivers for a market ripe for re-rating. Additional forecasts from UBS highlight solar panel demand rebounding post-2026 supply chain fixes, potentially adding 50 million ounces to annual consumption.

Risks include demand destruction from high rates or recession, but the asymmetry favors holders amid tightening fundamentals. Longer-term, silver’s dual role as industrial metal and monetary asset positions it for outperformance versus gold in a reflationary environment, with institutional flows accelerating via new silver ETFs launched this year.