Conservative fears Trump blunder will crush Republican hopes for 2026

A conservative commentator is telling Democrats that they are well-poised to win big in the upcoming midterm elections — if they capitalize on President Donald Trump’s tariff blunders.

Because Trump’s tariffs have harmed ordinary Americans economically, Democrats who focus on them could be well-poised to “crush” the 2026 midterms, conservative commentator Mona Charen wrote for The Bulwark. Nearly three out of five Americans (60%) blame Trump for inflation and nearly two out of three (65%) specifically disapprove of his tariffs.

“Voters are rarely able to connect policy to outcomes, but they have done so in the case of tariffs,” Charen wrote. “Back in 2024, Americans were about equally divided on the question of trade, with some favoring higher tariffs and roughly similar numbers opting for lower tariffs. Experience has changed their views.”

Charen concluded that Democrats have a “moment” to embrace tariff reform. Their message, Charen argued, should be “"Tariffs bad—full stop.” Charen’s analysis is supported by economic studies; a report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an economic think tank based in Germany, revealed foreign exporters covered only 4% of the $200 billion in tariff payments while the remaining 96% was shouldered by US importers and consumers.

“This finding has profound implications,” the study authors wrote. “If foreign exporters do not reduce their prices in response to tariffs, then the entire burden of the tariff falls on US buyers. The tariff functions not as a tax on foreign producers, but as a consumption tax on Americans. Every dollar of tariff revenue represents a dollar extracted from American businesses and households.”

In addition to Charen, other conservatives are also recognizing Trump’s political weakness on tariff policy. On Wednesday six Republican legislators joined 213 of the 214 Democrats in voting to repeal Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The six Republicans include Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.)

"In his first term, tariffs were one of the few areas where Congressional Rs were willing to push back on Trump," wrote Florida State University political scientist Sean Ehrlich. "Took them awhile and it’s only a small handful of them so far, but it looks like they’re starting to do so again.”

Charen also argued that Democrats can politically benefit from the unpopularity of Trump’s immigration policies. She wrote that, because Trump has diverted 25% of FBI agents from fighting financial crimes, public corruption and cybercrime to focus on immigration, “Democrats should emphasize that this grandma-snatching makes Americans less safe and call for redirecting ICE funding to local police departments—echoing Clinton's popular 100,000 cops initiative with the slogan ‘More Cops, Less ICE.’”

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