Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Top Analyst Raises Target to $245 on Strong Revenue Outlook

TLDR

• UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lifted Nvidia’s price target to $245 from $235, suggesting 28% upside potential ahead of Q4 earnings.
• Arcuri forecasts Q4 revenue of $67.5 billion, beating company guidance by $2.5 billion, with Q1 expected around $76 billion.
• Supply chain data remains strong despite sideways stock movement, with the March GTC conference providing additional catalysts.
• China revenue uncertainty persists as domestic chip adoption grows, though additional orders could boost results by billions.
• The analyst expects Nvidia to maintain 75% gross margins despite competitive pressure from Google and Broadcom TPUs.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri boosted his Nvidia price target to $245 from $235 ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings report on February 25. The upgrade maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Arcuri ranks fifth among over 12,000 analysts on TipRanks. His track record shows a 77% success rate with 41.4% average returns per rating.

The new price target implies 28% upside from current trading levels. Nvidia stock has gained 45% over the past year despite recent sideways movement.

Revenue Projections Exceed Expectations

The UBS analyst now models Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue at approximately $67.5 billion. This projection sits $2.5 billion above Nvidia’s official guidance.

For the April quarter, Arcuri forecasts around $76 billion in revenue. Current investor expectations range between $74 billion and $75 billion.

Recent supply chain checks continue showing strength. The analyst views the earnings setup as favorable heading into the February 25 report.

Nvidia’s GTC developer conference takes place in March. The event could provide additional momentum for shares.

China Sales and Margin Questions

China remains an uncertain factor in Nvidia’s revenue outlook. Local companies are increasingly adopting domestically produced chips.

However, Arcuri notes potential China orders could still add several billion dollars to results. UBS expects the company may exclude China from formal guidance.

Investors have raised concerns about margin sustainability. Large technology companies are developing their own AI processors.

The analyst sees limited near-term risk to Nvidia’s 75% gross margin target. Management will likely address competition from Google and Broadcom TPU chips during the earnings call and at GTC.

Wall Street Sentiment Remains Bullish

Nvidia currently trades at a P/E ratio of 47.47 with a market capitalization of $4.65 trillion. Revenue growth reached 65.22% over the last twelve months.

Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy consensus on the stock. TipRanks data shows 37 Buy ratings, one Hold, and one Sell from analysts.

The average analyst price target stands at $260.38, implying 37% upside potential. UBS believes steady AI demand and clearer guidance could improve investor sentiment heading into the earnings report.

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