Crypto Market: Standard Chartered Signals When Recovery May Begin

Standard Chartered has cautioned that Bitcoin and Ethereum may face additional downside pressure in the coming months, as weakening risk appetite and restrictive macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh on digital assets.

The bank expects a potential “capitulation” phase before conditions stabilize later in the year.

According to Standard Chartered, the near-term outlook remains fragile despite longer-term optimism extending toward the end of the decade. The warning comes as crypto markets remain sensitive to liquidity conditions and institutional positioning.

ETF outflows and underwater positioning pressure prices

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, pointed to sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a key risk factor. ETF holdings have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their peak in October 2025, reflecting reduced institutional exposure during the current drawdown.

With the average ETF entry price estimated near $90,000, a large share of institutional positions remain underwater. Kendrick noted that this dynamic increases the likelihood of further selling pressure, as investors are more inclined to reduce exposure than accumulate during periods of uncertainty.

Macro conditions remain unsupportive for risk assets

Beyond positioning, the bank highlighted macroeconomic headwinds as a major constraint. Standard Chartered does not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates until after a scheduled leadership change on June 17, 2026, leaving risk assets exposed to prolonged liquidity tightness.

In this environment, cryptocurrencies remain vulnerable to additional downside moves, particularly if broader financial conditions deteriorate or risk aversion intensifies.

Standard Chartered revises 2026 price targets lower

As part of its updated outlook, the bank sharply reduced its year-end 2026 forecasts, while maintaining a constructive long-term view through 2030.

• Bitcoin (BTC): target reduced from $150,000 to $100,000, with a near-term downside level around $50,000
• Ethereum (ETH): target cut from $7,500 to $4,000, with a potential downside test near $1,400
• Solana (SOL): target lowered from $250 to $135

Where the market stands now

Despite the cautionary outlook, current prices remain well above the bank’s projected downside levels. Bitcoin is trading near $66,500, roughly 46% below its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000. Ethereum is hovering around $1,900, representing a decline of more than 60% from its 2025 high.

Standard Chartered’s assessment suggests that while additional downside risk remains in play, the bank views any potential capitulation as part of a broader reset rather than a structural failure of the asset class.

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