Zcash Price at Risk of 66% Drop as Whales Dump 38% Holdings

Key Insights:

• Zcash price is up 1%, outperforming the crypto market, while down only 2% over 7 days.
• Bearish flag pattern threatens a 66% ZEC price drop if a breakdown below $185 support occurs.
• Whales reduced holdings 38% in 7 days, as divergence since October warns of a reversal.

Zcash price went up 1% in the last 24 hours. Most other coins dropped. That makes ZEC look strong. But something else is happening underneath.

Whales sold 38% of their holdings in just 7 days. The chart shows a pattern that usually comes before big drops. A technical signal that took 4 months to form just flashed red. The outperformance might be the calm before the real fall.

Zcash Price Shows 1% Gain

Most cryptocurrencies are bleeding right now. Bitcoin and Ethereum are down. The broad market continues its selloff. But Zcash price sits at $238, up 1% on the last day. Over the past 7 days, ZEC price has only dropped 2%. That is tiny compared to what else is happening. Month on month, the coin is down 40%. But in recent days, resilience stands out.

The coin bounced hard from a $185 low hit in early February. That bounce created the appearance of strength. Traders looking at just the daily or weekly charts might think Zcash price found a bottom. The short-term price action tells one story. The bigger picture tells something completely different.

Exchange flows show $2.06 million in net outflows on Feb. 12. Not massive, but it suggests some buyers still exist. The problem is what other data shows about who is actually buying and who is selling.

Bearish Flag and 4-Month Divergence Signal Weakness

Charts show Zcash price forming what technical analysts call a bearish flag and pole. This pattern appears after a sharp drop, followed by a tight sideways range that looks like a flag on a pole. When the price breaks down from that flag, it usually falls by the same distance as the original pole.

For Zcash, that measured move points to a potential 66% drop from current levels. A breakdown below $185 would confirm the pattern. That would open targets at $165 first. Then $110 if weakness continues.

But there is something even more concerning. A divergence signal that built over 4 months. Between October 2 last year and February 11 this year, the  Zcash price made a higher high. Meaning it climbed to a new peak above the previous one. During that exact same period, RSI, which measures momentum, made a lower high.

When the price rises, but momentum declines, that is bearish divergence. It shows buyers getting weaker even though the price still managed to climb. Once that kind of divergence completes, reversals often follow. Hard ones.

The RSI continues trending down on the chart. ZEC Price sits near recent highs. The gap between what price is doing and what momentum is doing keeps growing. That gap does not last forever.

Whales Dump 38% as Zcash Price Looks Like a Trap

On-chain data tracks how much different groups hold. Large holders, sometimes called whales, dropped their Zcash holdings by 38.47% over the past 7 days. In just the last 24 hours, they sold another 4.4%.

At the same time, exchanges saw inflows increase by 10.51%. That means coins moved from private wallets to exchanges. People usually move coins to exchanges when they plan to sell.

Smart Money, which tracks institutional and sophisticated holders, stayed flat at 0% change. No big accumulation is happening there either. The pattern is clear. Large holders are distributing. Retail might be buying small amounts, but the big money is heading for the exit.

Top 100 addresses still control 70% of the total ZEC supply. That concentration means when those addresses decide to move, the impact gets amplified. Besides, they are moving out right now.

This creates a dangerous setup. ZEC price holds steady or even ticks up slightly. That attracts some attention from traders who see outperformance. But underneath, the foundation is cracking. Whales are selling into that small buying pressure. Once the buyers dry up, nothing stops the fall.

Zcash price needs to break clearly above $254 to show real strength and invalidate the bearish setup. Below $185, the breakdown accelerates. Right now it sits at $238. Closer to danger than safety.