NBA’s New Max-Contract Paradigm Adds Risk To De’Aaron Fox’s $220-Plus Million Extension

The San Antonio Spurs signed star point guard De’Aaron Fox to a four-year maximum contract extension worth up to $229 million in early August, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. That decision was not met with universal acclaim.

“San Antonio could see Fox’s value decline because of this contract,” ESPN’s Kevin Pelton wrote. “A 30% max is already rich for Fox, who has only been an All-Star once, when he also made the All-NBA third team in 2022-23 after leading the Kings to the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. Worse yet, Fox’s skill set isn’t one that has aged well historically.”

Under the NBA’s previous collective bargaining agreement, Fox would have been a no-brainer max candidate. However, the latest CBA introduced punishing restrictions for teams with expensive payrolls. If Fox begins to tail off at any point throughout his extension, his $50-plus million annual salary could eventually become an anchor on the Spurs right as wunderkind Victor Wembanyama enters his athletic prime.

Why The Spurs Gave De’Aaron Fox A Max Deal

For now, the Spurs have the financial flexibility to take on the risk of a full max deal for Fox. Wembanyama won’t become eligible for an extension until next offseason. Reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle has three more years left on his rookie-scale contract, while 2025 No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper is just beginning his.

As long as Wembanyama remains ambulatory for the next year, he’s a lock to receive a max extension next summer. That contract figures to contain language that could bump his starting salary up to 30% of the 2027-28 salary cap if he makes an All-NBA team or wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, all three of which are within the realm of possibility as long as he plays the required 65 games. So, come 2027-28, Fox and Wembanyama could be gobbling up roughly 60% of the Spurs’ annual cap space.

Castle will become extension-eligible that offseason, although his new deal won’t begin until 2028-29. Meanwhile, Harper won’t even be eligible for an extension until the 2028-29 campaign. In other words, the Spurs still have at least the next two seasons to sort out their long-term backcourt before they’re forced to decide between which of Fox, Castle and Harper are long-term keepers.

In the meantime, the Spurs have Devin Vassell locked into a five-year, $135 million contract that runs through 2028-29 and stays relatively flat throughout. He’ll earn exactly $27 million for the next two seasons, dip down to $24.7 million in 2027-28—the year that Wembanyama’s new deal will kick in—and then move back up to $27 million in 2028-29, the final season of his contract. By that point, the salary cap could be pushing $200 million.

The Spurs also have the contracts of Harrison Barnes ($19.0 million) and Kelly Olynyk ($13.4 million) set to come off their books after this season, while Keldon Johnson is earning a flat $17.5 million over each of the next two years before his contract expires in 2027. The Spurs did sign Luke Kornet to a four-year, $40.7 million contract in free agency this offseason, but only $2.55 million of his $9.9 million salary in 2027-28 is fully guaranteed, and the Spurs have a $9.35 million team option on him in 2028-29.

In other words, they’re already structuring their long-term books with Wembanyama and Fox’s new extensions in mind. They’re taking after the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder in that way, as the Thunder built in team options to the contracts of Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million) and Lu Dort ($18.2 million) to coincide with the beginning of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren’s max extensions.

The question thus isn’t whether the Spurs can afford Fox’s new max deal without restricting the rest of their team-building options. They shouldn’t be in danger of running into apron issues for the next two or three seasons. The bigger question is what happens if they eventually decide to move on from him.

The NBA’s Max-Contract Paradigm Shift

While the Spurs didn’t hesitate to give Fox a max extension this offseason, the Atlanta Hawks haven’t been as quick to rush into a new deal with fellow All-Star point guard Trae Young this offseason. They don’t have the same type as financial flexibility as the Spurs, although that might not be their only hesitation.

Ever since Young made his NBA debut in 2018, the Hawks have yet to field a league-average defense. They’ve been in the top 11 leaguewide of points scored per possession in four of the past five seasons, but Young’s gifts on that end of the floor get weighed down by the target that he has on his back on defense.

Despite that, the Hawks likely wouldn’t have thought twice about giving Young a full max extension under the previous CBA. There weren’t nearly as many team-building restrictions placed upon the league’s most expensive rosters, so the Hawks’ primary concern would have been how far above the luxury-tax line they were willing to go. (Based on recent history, the answer is “not high at all.”)

However, the introduction of the feared second apron created a host of new roster-building roadblocks for teams that go deep into the luxury tax. Since the Hawks also to have to wrestle with whether to re-sign Dyson Daniels and/or Kristaps Porziņģis in the coming months, they might not be willing to put themselves in danger of crossing the second apron before they’re confident that Young can lead them on another deep playoff run.

The Hawks don’t need to look far to see how the new CBA shifted the max-contract paradigm across the league. The Denver Nuggets gave Michael Porter Jr. a five-year max extension in September 2021, and he was an integral piece on a championship-winning team in 2022-23. Two years later, they wound up shipping him and a fully unprotected 2032 first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, who’s on a far smaller contract for the next two years.

Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen might find himself in a similar boat one day if his regression this past season is a harbinger of what’s to come. One Eastern Conference executive told Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report that Markkanen had the worst contract in the league after the Jazz tacked on four extra years and $195.8 million as part of a renegotiate-and-extend in August 2024.

At the time the Jazz extended him, Markkanen was fresh off averaging 23.2 points and 8.2 rebounds while shooting 48.0% overall and 39.9% from deep on high volume (8.0 attempts per game). This past season, he averaged only 19.0 points and 5.9 rebounds per game while shooting a career-low 42.3% overall and only 34.6% from deep (the second-worst mark of his career). That may be much ado about nothing if he bounces back once the Jazz decide to field an NBA-caliber team again, but he might wind up being another example of a no-brainer max player under the old CBA who should have been negotiated down under the new one.

Will Fox eventually fall into that category as well? Or will he reward the Spurs’ faith in him by maintaining his trade value despite his hefty contract? The next few years will be telling in that regard either way.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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