Rivian (RIVN) stock soars 20% after earnings

After slipping more than 5% in the February 12 session, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) surged almost 20% in after-hours as the electric vehicle (EV) company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter (Q4) results and achieved its first annual gross profit, a turning point for the EV maker.

Notably, the EV maker managed to beat analyst expectations both in terms of revenue – which came in at $1.29 billion instead of the expected $1.26 billion – and loss per share – which was, at $0.54 significantly better than the $0.68 expected.

Perhaps the most welcome part of the Q4 report was the fact that Rivian achieved its first annual gross profit, which came in at $144 million, with the last trimester of 2025 accounting for a staggering $120 million.

Between the overall state of the EV market and the figures Rivian posted, it is not particularly surprising that RIVN stock first fell 5.15% during the February 12 session from $14.76 to $14, but then soared 19.79% in the pre-market to its press time price of $16.77.

Is Rivian stock a buy in 2026?

Along with the impressive 2025 results, Rivian’s forward-looking guidance appears to solidify RIVN shares as a buy in 2026. Out of the cited figures, the expectation that the EV maker will ship between 62,000 and 67,000 cars is a definitive standout. 

Indeed, if the target is reached, it would mean the firm achieved an annual deliveries growth of up to 59%.

Still, investing heavily in RIVN stock is not a guaranteed success. To begin with, the company still foresees it will be operating at a loss in the ongoing year.

Additionally, the highly optimistic delivery forecast is itself a danger for stock market traders since it could be difficult to reach, given the state of the EV industry. 

Investors tend to be sensitive to downward guidance revisions and target misses, meaning that the tailwinds that emerged from Q4 ambition could swiftly turn into headwinds.

A savvy approach could be to utilize data from other companies in the industry, such as Tesla, Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), and even Chinese giants such as BYD, for signs that the EV slowdown is nearing an end.

Another possible source of tailwinds might come from the government, especially if President Donald Trump’s administration reverses some of its anti-vehicular electrification policies.

Wall Street sets Rivian stock price target for next 12 months

Lastly, while Wall Street analysts hardly endorse investing in Rivian stock overall, it is noteworthy that there have been few rating revisions in the aftermath of the Q4 report.

Overall, with an overall rating of ‘Hold’ and a price target at $17.75 – above both the latest closing and the post-rally press time price – RIVN shares might appear like a sensible investment following the earnings, but a closer examination reveals the opposite.

Specifically, new price targets have been in relatively short supply in the last month, and, as impressive as $17.75 might appear, Rivian shares were changing hands at $20 as recently as January 7.

The singular rating assigned in February was bearish as, on Thursday, Mizuho Securities’ Vijay Rakesh positioned the equity as a ‘Sell,’ albeit after elevating the stock price forecast from $10 to $11.

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