Bitcoin Wobbles After Standard Chartered Slashes Target — Is $50K the Next Stop?

What Is Dragging Bitcoin’s Price Lower — and What Could Fuel Its Next Move?

Bitcoin’s steep retreat from its 2025 peak has rattled investors, forced analysts to reassess their outlooks, and revived a familiar debate in crypto markets: are we witnessing a temporary correction within a broader bull cycle, or the early stages of a deeper downturn?

After climbing to nearly $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has since shed roughly half its value at the worst point of the sell-off. As of mid-February 2026, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading around the mid-$60,000 range, reflecting a dramatic reversal from last year’s euphoric highs.

The pullback has prompted major financial institutions to adjust their projections. Among the most closely watched revisions came from Standard Chartered, which lowered its end-of-2026 Bitcoin price target to $100,000 from a previous estimate of $150,000. The bank also warned that continued near-term pressure could drag prices toward $50,000 before stability returns.

Despite the downgrade, the bank maintained a bullish long-term outlook, projecting that Bitcoin could still reach $500,000 by 2030.

Source: Coin Bureau

The question facing investors now is clear: what is driving Bitcoin’s latest slump, and what could reignite its next upward phase?

A Sharp Reversal From Record Highs

Bitcoin’s rally in 2025 was fueled by a powerful combination of factors. The approval and expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted substantial institutional inflows. Election-year optimism boosted risk appetite across markets. And broader macro conditions favored speculative assets.

By October 2025, Bitcoin reached a peak near $126,000, marking one of the strongest bull runs in its history.

That momentum has since faded.

By early February 2026, Bitcoin had fallen into the $60,000 range, representing roughly a 52 percent decline from its all-time high. On a year-over-year basis, the drop has also been significant. From levels near $96,600 in February 2025, the asset has declined more than 30 percent.

Recent trading shows a modest rebound, with Bitcoin hovering near $66,000 and registering a slight weekly gain. However, market capitalization has dipped, and volatility remains elevated.

For many investors, the scale of the correction has been sobering — particularly given expectations that institutional adoption and ETF demand would smooth out previous cycle extremes.

Standard Chartered Cuts Its Forecast

Standard Chartered’s downgrade captured attention not only because of its scale, but because it marked the second revision in just three months.

The bank lowered its end-of-2026 Bitcoin target to $100,000, down from $150,000, citing a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and shifting market dynamics.

It also cautioned that further weakness could push Bitcoin toward $50,000 in the short term.

Source: CoinMarketCap Data

Ethereum’s outlook was revised as well, with the bank trimming its end-of-2026 target to $4,000 and flagging downside risks toward $1,400 if conditions deteriorate further.

The rapid change in outlook underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in digital asset markets, even in an era of institutional participation.

ETF Outflows and Supply Pressure

One of the most significant drags on Bitcoin’s price has been persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

After serving as a major demand engine in 2025, ETFs have seen more than $8 billion in net outflows since November. These redemptions have effectively increased supply in the market, creating downward pressure on prices.

Analysts note that while ETFs initially supported Bitcoin’s ascent, they can amplify declines when investor sentiment turns negative. The same vehicles that fueled inflows during risk-on conditions can accelerate selling during periods of uncertainty.

The reversal has challenged the narrative that institutional participation would eliminate large drawdowns from crypto markets.

Macro Conditions and Policy Uncertainty

Beyond ETF flows, macroeconomic factors have weighed heavily on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Geopolitical tensions have increased, and uncertainty surrounding trade and economic policy has created volatility across global markets. At the same time, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been repeatedly delayed, tightening financial conditions.

Higher interest rates generally reduce appetite for speculative assets, as investors shift toward safer income-generating alternatives.

Policy debates and political developments have added further unpredictability. Market participants are closely watching fiscal decisions, regulatory signals, and global trade dynamics, all of which can influence liquidity and risk sentiment.

Bitcoin, often described as digital gold, has in practice behaved more like a high-beta risk asset during periods of tightening financial conditions.

A Familiar Cycle?

Despite the severity of the recent correction, historical context suggests that such drawdowns are not unusual in Bitcoin’s lifecycle.

Post-halving cycles have frequently included corrections ranging from 50 to 80 percent after major peaks. In that sense, the current decline remains within historical norms.

Veteran crypto investors argue that volatility is intrinsic to Bitcoin’s structure. Limited supply, speculative demand, and evolving market infrastructure contribute to dramatic price swings.

On-chain data indicates that large holders — often referred to as “whales” — have been accumulating during the dip. Meanwhile, retail sentiment has turned cautious, a pattern that has in previous cycles preceded eventual recoveries.

Still, past performance offers no guarantee of future outcomes.

What Could Support Bitcoin’s Next Phase?

Several factors could help stabilize or revive Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Institutional Adoption
Continued integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial products could restore confidence. Pension funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries remain potential sources of long-term demand.

Monetary Policy Shifts
If inflation cools and the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, risk appetite could return to global markets, benefiting digital assets.

Supply Dynamics
Bitcoin’s fixed supply and halving-driven issuance schedule continue to underpin its long-term scarcity narrative.

Infrastructure Maturity
Improved custody solutions, regulatory clarity, and broader adoption of blockchain-based financial services could strengthen market resilience.

Technological and Layer-2 Development
Growth in Lightning Network usage and other scaling technologies may enhance Bitcoin’s utility beyond store-of-value narratives.

Standard Chartered’s long-term projection of $500,000 by 2030 reflects confidence that structural adoption trends remain intact despite near-term turbulence.

Investor Sentiment Remains Divided

While some analysts remain cautious, others argue that the current environment represents a consolidation phase rather than a structural breakdown.

Crypto markets have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to recover from sharp downturns, driven by innovation cycles and renewed liquidity.

However, the next phase may depend less on speculative enthusiasm and more on measurable adoption and macroeconomic stability.

The era of ETF-driven enthusiasm may be giving way to a more nuanced period in which digital assets must prove their resilience under traditional financial scrutiny.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s fall from its 2025 highs has been swift and dramatic, erasing roughly half its peak value and prompting major institutions to revise forecasts.

ETF outflows, macroeconomic tightening, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting risk sentiment have combined to drag prices lower. Yet historical cycle patterns, institutional adoption trends, and Bitcoin’s supply dynamics continue to support a long-term bullish narrative.

Whether the current correction marks the midpoint of a broader bull market or the onset of a prolonged consolidation remains uncertain.

What is clear is that Bitcoin’s volatility endures — even in an institutional era — and its next phase will likely be shaped as much by global macro forces as by crypto-native developments.

hokanews.com – Not Just Crypto News. It’s Crypto Culture.

Writer @Erlin
Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.
 
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