Bitcoin Price Prediction: Glassnode NUPL Slips to Hope/Fear as Bhutan Sells BTC

Key Insights:

• BTC NUPL is back in Hope/Fear, with thin profit cushions as price holds a defensive $60K–$72K band.
• Bhutan reduced holdings to about 5,600 BTC after a 100 BTC transfer, down from 13,295 BTC in the October 2025 peak.
• Standard Chartered warns BTC could dip toward $50,000 amid ETF outflows, analysts cite a realized price near $55K and risk below $40K.

Bitcoin price traded in a cautious range after failing to hold $70,000 and sliding back toward the mid-$60,000 area.

The move revived bearish positioning across derivatives and spot markets. However, several analysts pointed to weakening demand and heavier sell-side behavior.

Glassnode reported new on‑chain signals that caught investor attention. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) moved back into the “Hope/Fear” zone. The metric stood near 0.18, showing traders are shifting between cautious optimism and concern about market direction.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Glassnode NUPL Returns to Hope/Fear

Glassnode’s NUPL reading near 0.18 places the market close to a threshold where many holders have limited unrealized gains. When that cushion narrows, small BTC price drops can push more supply into loss. Additionally, sellers can appear faster during failed rallies.

Glassnode also described Bitcoin’s spot activity as structurally weak. It said volumes have been depressed, which can leave a demand gap during drawdowns.

The firm noted that current conditions show futures deleveraging and stronger downside hedging in options. It compared this mix to earlier bear phases, suggesting traders are preparing for extended market weakness.

Bhutan Reduces BTC Holdings After 100 BTC Transfer

Attention also turned to Bhutan after Arkham Intelligence data showed a 100 BTC transfer to QCP. It was worth about $6.77 million at the time referenced. The transfer followed increased activity tied to Bhutan-linked wallets. Also, it renewed market focus on sovereign-related flows.

Bhutan’s reported holdings dropped to about 5,600 BTC, valued near $385 million in the figures cited. The level was also described as down from a peak of 13,295 BTC in October 2025.

Some transfers were noted as moving to unknown addresses rather than confirmed exchange wallets. This detail left open the possibility that every coin could have a different final destination.

Bitcoin Price Shows Bear Market Signals

Market watchers pointed to broader indicators during the session. They said these signals align with a bear‑market transition. Analysts also noted that Bitcoin price trends reflect weakening momentum, reinforcing concerns about sustained downside risk.

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) leaned toward deeper downside conditions rather than a routine correction.

At the same time, analysts continued to track liquidity and exchange-related signals. Macro releases added another layer of caution. The Fear & Greed Index was reported near extreme fear levels, with one reading cited at 5 and another at 8.

The move followed U.S. labor data showing nonfarm payrolls growth of 130,000 in January, above estimates of 70,000.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate was reported at 4.3% after 4.4% in December. Traders also looked ahead to U.S. CPI inflation data and a large crypto options expiry as near-term events.

Technical Signals Keep Downside Targets in Focus

Several BTC price targets circulated as analysts compared current conditions to prior cycles. Glassnode referenced the realized price area near $55,000 as a level that could come into view if selling accelerates.

Standard Chartered also warned that Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 before a later recovery.

Analyst Trader Tardigrade shared a chart comparing Bitcoin’s current weekly structure with that of 2018. He said the Bitcoin price is interacting with a channel formed by the 150-week and 200-week EMAs. He also described it as a similar setup.

If the pattern continues to mirror the 2018 structure, the BTC price may be forming a long‑term base. This range could set the stage for stability before a potential continuation higher in the future.

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno highlighted weak signals in the crypto market. He pointed to ETF outflows and negative Coinbase premiums. He also noted weaker stablecoin liquidity and fewer structural tailwinds affecting investor sentiment.

Also, BlockFills, a Susquehanna-backed crypto lender, suspended client deposits and withdrawals amid BTC volatility.

Bitcoin price rebounded after a sharp dip. It touched a 24‑hour low near $65,500. Later, it climbed back toward $67,000, according to CoinMarketCap data.

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