TRX is maintaining its main downtrend by squeezing in a narrow range on a weekly basis; it gives accumulation phase signals with critical support tests around $0.28, but BTC’s bearish supertrend makes a cautious approach mandatory for altcoins.
TRX in Weekly Market Summary
TRX stabilized at the $0.28 level with a limited 0.61% rise last week, while a narrow trading range ($0.28-$0.28) was observed across the market. Volume profile remained at mediocre levels with $113.36M, and the primary trend continues downward. RSI at 44.65 is in neutral territory, although MACD shows a positive histogram, bearish signals dominate below the short-term EMA20 ($0.28). There is no significant news flow in the macro context, but BTC’s downtrend is pressuring altcoin dynamics. This week, focus on critical thresholds for detailed TRX spot analysis.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
Market structure shows that TRX is maintaining its long-term downtrend; lower high/lower low formation remains intact on higher timeframes (weekly and monthly). EMA20 and EMA50 crossovers are bearish, and the price’s inability to break above the $0.30 resistance zone confirms the trend’s integrity. However, a slight momentum recovery (MACD histogram positive) indicates a consolidation phase without a potential trend change signal. For portfolio managers, the trend remaining intact depends on holding above the $0.2812 major support; a breakdown would bring downward momentum.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Volume profile and price action exhibit accumulation phase characteristics in the $0.2741-$0.2812 band: low-volume tests and quick reactions reflect smart money’s tendency to accumulate support. Distribution patterns are not yet dominant, as upper wicks are limited and closes are on support with low volume. According to Wyckoff methodology, this narrow range could be preparing for a ‘spring’, but bullish accumulation confirmation won’t come without breaking $0.2837 resistance. Volume increase is expected; the current $113M level is insufficient.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe, there is 3 support/3 resistance confluence: Price is testing the $0.2812 (80/100 score) major support, with RSI at 44.65 neutral without divergence. Although MACD gives a bullish crossover signal, remaining below EMA20 keeps the short-term bearish filter active. The critical inflection point is $0.2837; a breakout here creates multi-TF confluence and opens the way to $0.2946. Conversely, a $0.2741 breakdown triggers a daily trend reversal. Monitor daily volatility for TRX futures market data.
Weekly Chart View
On the weekly chart, the downtrend dominates; a resistance-heavy structure prevails with 2 support/3 resistance ($0.2946 strongest). Price is closing near but below the weekly EMA20, preserving trend integrity. On the 3-day timeframe, 2S/4R imbalance emphasizes upper band resistances. Confluence points to a weekly doji pattern (indecision) with holding above $0.2812; volume increase will determine breakout direction. For long-term portfolios, a weekly close above $0.2883 is required for a positive scenario.
Critical Decision Points
Main supports: $0.2812 (80/100, major confluence), $0.2685 (63/100), $0.2741 (62/100). Resistances: $0.2946 (78/100), $0.2883 (73/100), $0.2837 (71/100). Trend structure remains intact above $0.2812; a breakdown carries downside risk to $0.2540 (22 score). Upside objective $0.3210 (51 score). R/R ratio is ideal for strategic entries: Bullish 1:2+, bearish 1:1.5. These levels are derived from 13 strong TF confluences and can be detailed in TRX and other analyses.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
Bullish Scenario
$0.2837 breakout and $0.2883 retest activates bullish scenario: Long positions with $0.2812 stop-loss targeting $0.2946 first, extension to $0.3210. Confluence: Daily MACD bullish + weekly volume spike. Position size limited to 2-3% risk; trailing stop to EMA20. Expected R/R 1:2.5, suitable for long-term holding with accumulation phase confirmation.
Bearish Scenario
$0.2812 breakdown and close below $0.2741 triggers bearish: Shorts with $0.2837 stop targeting $0.2685, risk to $0.2540. Weekly downtrend filter intact, supported by BTC correlation. Position management: Partial profit at $0.2741, full exit at $0.2540. R/R 1:2, aggressive shorts suitable if distribution patterns form.
Bitcoin Correlation
TRX exhibits high correlation with BTC (0.85%+); while BTC is in downtrend at $68,992 with bearish supertrend, altcoin rallies remain limited. If BTC supports at $68,897 / $65,415 break, pressure on TRX increases below $0.2741. Conversely, BTC $71,248 breakout becomes a catalyst for TRX resistance test ($0.2946). BTC dominance rise crushes alts; prioritize monitoring BTC key levels in strategy.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
To watch next week: $0.2812 hold vs breakdown, volume profile change, BTC $68,897 test. Trend intact above $0.2812; expect bearish acceleration below. Position traders should wait for confluence, avoid early entries. In the macro cycle, altcoin seasonality is low; patience is key.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/trx-technical-analysis-february-14-2026-weekly-strategy
