SOL Technical Analysis Feb 14

SOL, while maintaining the LH/LL structure in the general downtrend, tested $85 levels with over 9% recovery in the last 24 hours; however, structural break (BOS) levels will be decisive for trend change.

Market Structure General Overview

SOL’s current market structure indicates a clear downtrend in higher timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W). Instead of Higher Highs/Higher Lows (HH/HL), the Lower Highs/Lower Lows (LH/LL) pattern dominates; although the bounce from the recent swing low at $77.53 has formed a short-term Higher Low (HL), the overall structure is bearish. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 9 strong levels were identified: 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances balance on 1W. Supertrend gives a bearish signal (resistance $106.74), staying below EMA20 ($95.76) confirms the short-term bearish structure. RSI at 33.25 is near oversold territory, MACD with negative histogram supports downward momentum. Price at $84.97, 24-hour range $77.53-$85.63 with increased volatility.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

In the short term, the recovery from the $77.53 swing low could form a potential Higher Low (HL), signaling bullish divergence. If price breaks the $85.63 daily high as a Higher High (HH), a short-term HH/HL structure may begin. However, this is insufficient to invalidate the overall LH/LL; a 1D close above $89.8588 (score 75/100) is necessary. RSI has potential to rebound from oversold, but remains limited as long as MACD stays bearish.

Downtrend Risk

Dominant LH/LL structure: As long as it stays below the recent swing high $89.8588, lower highs continue. If $84.3267 swing low (score 62/100) breaks, the downtrend strengthens with a new Lower Low (LL). On the 1W timeframe, LH/LL is clear; reversal remains weak without surpassing $107.3961 resistance. Supertrend and EMA structure reinforces bearish bias; bearish breakdown target $24.2618 (low score distant level).

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

Bullish Break of Structure (BOS): Price breaking the $89.8588 swing high (strongest resistance, score 75/100) with strong volume would disrupt LH/LL and confirm transition to HH/HL. Next BOS at $107.3961; surpassing it activates $132.1170 bullish continuation target (score 51/100). Bearish BOS: Close below $78.3500 swing low (score 71/100) confirms downtrend continuation with new LL; $67.5000 may then be tested. Change of Character (CHoCH): Bullish CHoCH requires sweep and rejection above $89.8588, bearish requires liquidity grab below $78.3500. These levels are strong on MTF, breakouts must be confirmed with volume.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$89.8588 (score 75/100): Most critical resistance, pivot in LH formation. Break signals bullish BOS. $107.3961 (score 63/100): Medium-term resistance, aligns with EMA20. $132.1170 (score 62/100): Long-term target, near old ATH; requires strong rally.

Recent Swing Lows

$78.3500 (score 71/100): Main support, near recent bottom; hold offers hope for HL. Break signals bearish BOS. $67.5000 (score 67/100): Strong MTF support, 1W low. $84.3267 (score 62/100): Short-term, watch below current price – quick LL risk.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $69,068 in downtrend (24h +4.83%), Supertrend bearish; SOL highly correlated to BTC (%0.85+). If BTC breaks $68,897 support, SOL tests $78.3500 via cascade effect. If BTC surpasses $71,248 resistance, green light for SOL bullish BOS ($89.8588 facilitation). BTC dominance increase cautions altcoins; SOL/BTC pair dominated by LH/LL structure, SOL remains limited without BTC recovery. Key BTC levels: Supports $68,897/$65,415, resistances $71,248/$75,128.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall outlook bearish under LH/LL dominance, with short-term bounce leading to consolidation. Long bias weak without structure disruption (bullish BOS above $89.8588); short opportunity below $78.3500. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic – track swing points as liquidity pools, BOS/CHoCH for trend shifts. Risk management: Stop-loss beyond swing levels, position sizing per MTF. No news keeps structure in focus; high volatility, trade carefully.