Coinbase Shares Jump Despite $667M Quarterly Net Loss

• Coinbase shares surge 17% despite $667M net loss and a sharper-than-expected 20% revenue decline.
• Bitcoin climbs nearly 5%, driving Coinbase higher as inflation data fuels rate-cut expectations.
• Stablecoin bill debate raises questions over Coinbase’s USD Coin revenue-sharing model.

Coinbase Global Inc. shares surged on Friday, rising nearly 17% to $164.32 and at one point gaining almost 20% on more than double the average trading volume. According to a Bloomberg report, the rebound followed the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which showed weaker trading activity and a large net loss. The move indicated that investors had positioned for more severe results after weeks of declines that left the stock down about 45% over the past year.

Coinbase reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.8 billion, a 20% decline that exceeded analysts’ expectations for a drop. Lower token prices weighed on trading volumes across digital assets, reducing transaction revenue. After recording an unrealized loss tied to the mark-to-market value of its crypto holdings and investments, the company posted a net loss of $667 million for the quarter.

The stock had fallen roughly 8% in the prior session and had trended lower in the weeks leading up to the earnings release. Friday’s rally marked the largest intraday increase since May 2025.

Analysts noted that expectations heading into the report were subdued. Dan Dolev of Mizuho Securities, which maintains a neutral rating on the shares, said certain revenue streams may have been overlooked, including 12 products each generating more than $100 million in revenue.

Bitcoin Rally and Macro Data Lift Sentiment

The rally in Coinbase shares coincided with gains in Bitcoin, which rose as much as 4.93% to $69,665, its first advance in five trading sessions. Bitcoin accounts for roughly 60% of the total cryptocurrency market value, and Coinbase’s stock often trades in tandem with its price.

Markets broadly strengthened after inflation data came in below expectations, increasing speculation about potential rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically reduce bond yields and increase liquidity, conditions that have historically supported demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Michael Miller of Morningstar Investment Service said Coinbase’s shares remain closely correlated with cryptocurrency prices due to the company’s exposure to trading and staking businesses.

Stablecoin Revenue and Policy Developments

In recent years, Coinbase has sought to diversify beyond spot trading. A major portion of revenue has come from its revenue-sharing agreement tied to USD Coin, issued by Circle Internet Group Inc.. Analysts view the income stream as higher-margin and more predictable than transaction fees linked to trading volumes.

During the earnings call, Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong addressed ongoing negotiations in Washington over draft stablecoin legislation. 

Coinbase previously withdrew support for the current version of the bill, stating it would prefer no legislation over a measure it viewed as unfavorable. Comments during the call were described by analysts as constructive in tone, as lawmakers continue to debate the framework.

Related: Coinbase Stocks Up 8% On Goldman Sachs Buy Upgrade: What’s Next?