Coinbase sees Benchmark cut target to $267 after Q4 miss

Why Benchmark cut Coinbase to $267 but kept a Buy

Benchmark reduced its Coinbase price target by 37% to $267 from $421 while maintaining a Buy stance, as reported by The Block. The move followed a weaker Q4 and softer Q1 outlook amid broad crypto–market pressure.

The same report noted the firm cut its 2026 EPS estimate by about 21% to $5.34 and said Coinbase’s Q1 guidance came in roughly 19% below consensus. These adjustments reflect a more conservative near-term operating backdrop.

Even so, the note highlighted growing diversification: subscriptions and services revenue of roughly $727 million in Q4, about 43% of net revenue, rising stablecoin balances, and a recovery in institutional transaction revenue, including contributions after the Deribit acquisition. The figures indicate a business mix less reliant on spot trading.

How peers frame Coinbase after Q4 miss and guidance

Other firms recalibrated views without abandoning longer-term optimism, according to Finviz. JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington lowered his year-end target to $252 from $290 and kept an Overweight, while pointing to product expansion and potential U.S. legislation as supports.

Rosenblatt’s Chris Brendler characterized the Q4 miss as tied to the severity of the market reversal but argued Coinbase remains well positioned due to diversification. Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi trimmed his target to $300 and maintained a Buy, citing continued market-share gains and expanding services.

“More diversified and durable than ever,” said Mark Palmer, analyst at Benchmark. That view aligns with peers who see subscriptions, stablecoins, and institutional products cushioning volatility in transaction volumes.

A larger contribution from subscriptions and services, alongside stablecoin-related flows and institutional activity, implies reduced cyclicality versus pure trading revenue. If sustained, that mix could modestly dampen earnings volatility through downcycles.

On valuation, Barron’s noted some on the Street view the recent selloff as overdone, with risk/reward tilting more favorably after revisions. The persistence of positive ratings despite target cuts signals confidence in the strategic trajectory, even as near-term estimates reset.

At the time of this writing, based on data from Yahoo Finance, COIN traded near $166.00 on a delayed quote, up about 1% after hours, with a year-to-date decline around 27%. This article is for information only and not investment advice.

Near-term risks and catalysts to watch

Risks: Q4 earnings miss, soft Q1 guidance, crypto market weakness

Earnings underperformance and a below-consensus Q1 guide heighten the risk that spot volumes and transaction fees stay pressured. Ongoing crypto-market weakness could weigh on retail activity and spreads.

Catalysts: subscriptions and services revenue strength, regulatory clarity potential

Resilience in subscriptions and services, combined with stablecoin-related activity and institutional flows, could support revenue durability. Potential U.S. regulatory clarity on stablecoins and market structure may improve sentiment.

FAQ about Coinbase price target $267

How did Coinbase’s Q4 results and Q1 guidance influence analyst revisions?

They prompted target and EPS cuts after a Q4 miss and Q1 guidance about 19% below consensus, as reported by The Block.

What are JPMorgan, Rosenblatt, and Canaccord saying about Coinbase’s outlook now?

They reduced targets but kept constructive stances, emphasizing diversification and long-term opportunities, according to Finviz.