Helium (HNT) Surges 57% Weekly: DePIN Rally Shows Sustainable Momentum

Helium (HNT) posted a 16.9% gain in the past 24 hours, reaching $1.29 and extending its weekly performance to an impressive 57.2%. While this outperformance against Bitcoin’s modest weekly gains initially appears bullish, our analysis of on-chain metrics and market structure reveals a more nuanced picture for investors considering entry points.

The decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) token climbed from a 24-hour low of $1.11 to an intraday high of $1.33, generating $16.18 million in trading volume—approximately 6.7% of its $240.5 million market cap. This volume-to-market-cap ratio suggests moderate liquidity conditions, neither extremely thin nor deeply liquid compared to top-50 cryptocurrencies.

Market Structure Analysis: Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

At current prices, Helium trades 97.67% below its November 2021 all-time high of $54.88, a sobering reminder of the token’s bear market severity. However, the token has appreciated 1,026% from its April 2020 all-time low of $0.113, providing important context for long-term holder psychology.

We observe that HNT’s circulating supply stands at 186.32 million tokens against a maximum supply of 223 million—representing 83.5% circulation. This relatively high circulation rate limits potential supply shock dynamics that sometimes fuel explosive rallies in tokens with locked supplies. The fully diluted valuation of $287.9 million sits just 19.7% above current market cap, suggesting minimal overhang from future emissions.

The 30-day performance tells a different story than the weekly surge: HNT remains down 7.5% over the past month, indicating this week’s rally recovers recent losses rather than establishing new ground. This pattern typically characterizes volatility within a consolidation range rather than the beginning of sustained uptrends.

Volume Analysis and Liquidity Concerns

Daily trading volume of $16.18 million represents a significant increase from typical levels, though we must contextualize this figure. For a token ranked #157 by market cap, this volume places Helium in the middle tier of liquidity—sufficient for retail traders but potentially problematic for institutional-sized positions.

We calculate that the current volume would support approximately $2-3 million in buy orders before creating 5%+ slippage, based on typical order book depth patterns for tokens in this market cap range. This limited depth creates asymmetric risk: upside momentum can accelerate quickly with modest capital inflows, but downside moves can also become violent if larger holders attempt exits.

The 1-hour price change of 1.01% during our analysis window suggests cooling momentum after the initial surge, a technical pattern often preceding short-term consolidation or retracement.

DePIN Narrative and Fundamental Considerations

Helium’s core value proposition—incentivizing decentralized wireless network deployment—faces ongoing questions about sustainable economic models. The network’s migration to Solana in April 2023 aimed to improve scalability, but token economics remain a concern for long-term investors.

We note that cryptocurrency infrastructure projects often experience price appreciation disconnected from actual network usage metrics. Without corresponding data on active hotspots, data transfer volumes, or network revenue, this rally may reflect speculative positioning on broader DePIN sector interest rather than Helium-specific fundamental improvements.

The token’s position at rank #157 suggests limited institutional attention compared to top-100 assets. While this creates asymmetric upside potential if the DePIN narrative gains mainstream traction, it also indicates higher risk of prolonged illiquidity during market downturns.

Technical Outlook and Risk Scenarios

From a technical perspective, the weekly 57% gain establishes $1.11 as a near-term support level, with resistance likely forming at the 24-hour high of $1.33. A sustained break above $1.35 would target the psychologically significant $1.50 level, representing approximately 16% upside from current prices.

However, failure to hold $1.20 support could trigger rapid retracement toward $1.00, where we’d expect demand from traders seeking the psychological round number. The monthly chart’s 7.5% decline suggests the path of least resistance remains sideways to down unless broader market conditions improve significantly.

We must also consider macro factors: DePIN tokens generally correlate with risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. Any Bitcoin weakness or regulatory uncertainty could disproportionately impact smaller-cap infrastructure projects like Helium.

Actionable Takeaways and Investment Considerations

For traders considering Helium exposure, our analysis suggests the following risk-adjusted approaches:

Bullish scenario: Entry near $1.20 support with stops below $1.10 offers a 2:1 risk-reward targeting $1.40. This setup assumes continued sector rotation into DePIN narratives and no major Bitcoin correction.

Conservative approach: Wait for monthly chart confirmation above previous resistance levels before committing capital. The 30-day decline suggests premature entries have been punished recently.

Risk factors to monitor: Network usage metrics, Solana ecosystem health (given HNT’s migration), competitive pressures from traditional telecom IoT solutions, and overall crypto market beta exposure.

We observe that HNT’s current rally lacks the volume characteristics of sustainable breakouts seen in previous bull cycles. The token needs to establish consistent daily volume above $25-30 million to suggest genuine accumulation rather than short-term speculation.

Finally, investors should recognize that even with this week’s 57% gain, HNT remains in a structural downtrend from its 2021 peak. Position sizing should reflect the token’s elevated volatility and the unproven long-term viability of token-incentivized wireless infrastructure models. The gap between vision and execution in the DePIN sector remains wide, and price action alone cannot confirm fundamental progress.