Memecoin ‘Capitulation’ May Signal Surprise Rebound, Santiment Says

Santiment says memecoins may be closer to a rebound than traders think, arguing that the current mood around the sector looks like “capitulation”, the point where most participants have stopped expecting a recovery.

In a report published Friday, the analytics platform said social media chatter has shifted heavily bearish, with many traders treating memecoins as a finished trend. Santiment’s view is that this kind of broad dismissal has historically appeared near market lows, because prices often move opposite the consensus once pessimism becomes crowded.

There is a growing narrative of “nostalgia” regarding memecoins, with many traders treating the sector as if it is permanently dead. This collective acceptance of the “end of the meme era” is a classic capitulation signal. When the crowd completely writes off a sector, it is often the contrarian time to start paying attention again.

Santiment

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Crypto Market Crash

The backdrop has to do with weaker performance across the sector. To put it in perspective, the memecoin total market value has dropped 34.04% over the past 30 days to about US$31.02 billion (AU$47.4 billion), according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

The broader market has also been under pressure, with Bitcoin falling near US$60,000 (AU$91,800) on Feb. 3, its lowest level since October 2024.

Recent memecoin moves have been muted among the largest tokens, with most top-100 gains over the past week described as small. Santiment pointed to Pippin (PIPPIN) as an outlier after a 243.17% jump, while Official Trump rose 1.37% and Shiba Inu gained 1.11%.

Interestingly, it goes back to the wider debate about whether the usual “rotation” cycle still applies, Bitcoin leading, then Ethereum, then smaller and riskier tokens. 

If Bitcoin attracts more institutional attention, some analysts expect the next wave of altcoin gains to be narrower, with only select tokens outperforming rather than a broad-based rally.

Though Santiment’s counterpoint is that extreme negativity itself can be an ingredient for a rebound, even if the next “alt season” is more selective than past cycles.

Related: Coinbase Swings to $667M Loss as Crypto Slump Crushes Trading Volumes

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