Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market? This Chart Suggests So

Bitcoin has closed below its 50-week Simple Moving Average, the same structural trigger that preceded bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $68,400, down more than 40% from its October 2025 all-time high around $126,000. The market has now posted four consecutive weekly losses, and price remains firmly beneath the 50-week SMA, a level historically viewed as the long-term bull/bear dividing line.

The question now is not whether volatility is elevated, it is whether the cycle has already shifted into contraction.

The 50-Week SMA: A Historically Reliable Trigger

The 50-week SMA has consistently acted as a macro trend filter across prior cycles.

In 2014, 2018, and 2022, a decisive weekly close below this moving average marked the transition from expansion into prolonged bear markets. In each instance, downside continuation followed as momentum shifted from accumulation to distribution.

Bitcoin is now trading below that level for several consecutive weeks. Historically, extended price acceptance beneath this moving average increases the probability that the cycle peak is already in place. Some analysts estimate that remaining below the 50-week SMA implies a 60–70% likelihood that the bull phase has ended.

While no single indicator guarantees a macro outcome, this level has repeatedly served as a structural inflection point.

Support Levels and On-Chain Context

Despite the bearish technical structure, the current move is being described by some institutional desks as an orderly deleveraging rather than a systemic breakdown.

Immediate Support:

• $60,000–$65,000 range

This zone aligns with recent liquidity sweeps and channel support seen on lower timeframes.

Deeper Bear Market Floor:
On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests a potential “ultimate” bear bottom near $55,000–$55,800, where the 200-week SMA converges with the network’s realized price.

That area historically attracts long-term buyers during cyclical resets.

Institutional Sentiment Turning Defensive

Market psychology has shifted sharply. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen into extreme fear territory, with readings as low as 8. Meanwhile, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were aggressive accumulators throughout 2025, have turned into net sellers in early 2026.

This shift in institutional flow reinforces the weakness signaled by the 50-week SMA breakdown.

What Would Invalidate the Bearish Signal?

To negate the bear market confirmation, Bitcoin would need to reclaim and hold above the 50-week SMA for multiple consecutive weekly closes.

A sustained move back above $80,000 would materially improve the long-term structure and weaken the case for a multi-year contraction phase.

Until that happens, the 50-week SMA remains the defining macro level, and history shows that trading below it is rarely neutral.

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