Helium’s 28% Rally: Network Metrics Show DePIN Revival, But 97% Below ATH

Helium (HNT) emerged as one of crypto’s top performers on February 16, 2026, surging 28.2% to $1.48 and pushing its market capitalization to $275 million. More remarkably, the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) token has now gained 80.8% over the past seven days, marking its strongest performance since the sector’s initial hype cycle in 2021-2022.

Yet our analysis reveals a more nuanced picture: HNT remains 97.3% below its November 2021 all-time high of $54.88, and current trading volume of $33.4 million—while elevated—represents just a fraction of the liquidity seen during previous breakout periods. This raises critical questions about sustainability and whether we’re witnessing genuine ecosystem adoption or merely speculative rotation into undervalued DePIN plays.

Volume Analysis Reveals Institutional Interest Patterns

The 24-hour trading volume spike to $33.4 million represents a 340% increase from the 30-day average, suggesting concentrated buying pressure rather than broad-based accumulation. We observe that this volume surge coincides with HNT breaking above its 200-day moving average around $1.15—a technical level that had acted as resistance throughout Q4 2025 and early 2026.

What makes this rally particularly intriguing is the timing. The broader crypto market has been consolidating, with Bitcoin hovering near $48,000 and major altcoins showing mixed performance. HNT’s outperformance suggests sector-specific catalysts rather than general market momentum. The token’s intraday range of $1.14 to $1.55 indicates 36% volatility—high even by crypto standards—pointing to aggressive position-taking by shorter-term traders.

The circulating supply of 186.3 million tokens against a maximum supply of 223 million (83.5% already in circulation) limits potential dilution concerns that plague many infrastructure projects. However, with 36.7 million tokens still to be emitted, investors should anticipate modest supply pressure over the coming quarters.

DePIN Sector Revival: Network Fundamentals vs. Token Price

Our research into Helium’s network metrics reveals a disconnect that warrants attention. While token price has surged, the fundamental question remains: has network utilization kept pace? The Helium network transitioned to Solana in April 2023, a migration designed to improve scalability and reduce operational costs for hotspot operators.

Since that migration, the network has expanded to include both IoT and 5G coverage, positioning itself as a dual-purpose decentralized infrastructure play. Industry data suggests Helium’s hotspot count has grown modestly throughout 2025, though exact figures vary by tracking source. The 30-day price gain of 6.5% before this week’s surge indicates the market was already beginning to reprice HNT ahead of the breakout.

We believe the rally reflects growing recognition that DePIN represents one of crypto’s few sectors with demonstrable real-world utility. Unlike many speculative tokens, Helium hotspot operators earn HNT by providing actual wireless coverage—creating tangible value outside the crypto echo chamber. This utility thesis has attracted a different investor profile: those seeking exposure to physical infrastructure buildout rather than pure speculative plays.

However, the 97% drawdown from ATH serves as a stark reminder of valuation risk. At its 2021 peak, Helium commanded a fully diluted valuation exceeding $12 billion. Today’s FDV of $329 million represents just 2.7% of that figure—either suggesting enormous upside potential or reflecting diminished market confidence in the original thesis.

Technical Outlook: Resistance Zones and Risk Management

From a technical perspective, HNT faces its first major resistance zone at $1.65-$1.75, which corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement from the 2021 ATH to the 2023 lows. The speed of the current rally—80% in seven days—increases the probability of a near-term consolidation or pullback as early buyers take profits.

We note that the 1-hour chart shows a -3.1% retracement from the daily high, suggesting some profit-taking is already occurring. The RSI on shorter timeframes likely reached overbought territory above 70, making a healthy correction to the $1.20-$1.30 range constructive rather than bearish.

The next significant resistance level sits at $2.15-$2.40, representing the 2024 highs and a psychological barrier where many longer-term holders may exit positions. Breaking above $2.40 with sustained volume would represent a genuine trend reversal and potentially attract momentum-based institutional capital.

Support has now established at the breakout level of $1.15, with secondary support at $0.95 (30-day moving average). A breakdown below $0.95 would invalidate the bullish thesis and suggest the rally was merely a short-squeeze or isolated event rather than the beginning of a sustained uptrend.

Risk Factors and Contrarian Considerations

Despite the impressive price action, several risk factors temper our enthusiasm. First, the DePIN sector has historically suffered from a persistent “business model” question: can decentralized infrastructure networks achieve the scale and reliability to compete with traditional providers? Helium’s revenue model depends on data credit usage, and if network demand doesn’t materialize, token economics become circular—miners earning tokens with limited external demand.

Second, the competitive landscape has intensified. Multiple DePIN projects have launched since Helium’s initial success, fragmenting capital and attention. Projects like GEODNET, Hivemapper, and others are competing for the same infrastructure-focused investor base, potentially limiting HNT’s ability to recapture its 2021 market dominance.

Third, the migration to Solana, while technically beneficial, made HNT dependent on another blockchain’s performance and security. Any systemic issues with Solana could impact HNT’s functionality and perception, adding a layer of counterparty risk not present in its original architecture.

Our analysis suggests that while the current rally reflects genuine interest in the DePIN narrative, investors should approach with position sizing appropriate to a rank-147 market cap asset with high volatility. The 28% daily gain is impressive, but crypto history is littered with similar spikes that reversed just as quickly.

Actionable Takeaways for Market Participants

For traders considering exposure to Helium’s current momentum, we recommend the following framework: First, recognize this as a high-volatility, speculative position rather than a core portfolio holding. The 36% intraday range and 80% weekly gain indicate price discovery is still occurring, making precise entries and exits challenging.

Second, implement strict risk management. Given the distance from ATH and the lack of clear fundamental catalysts beyond sector rotation, a stop-loss below $1.15 would limit downside while allowing for continued upside participation. Position sizing should account for the possibility of a 30-40% retracement, which would be normal after such an aggressive rally.

Third, monitor network growth metrics rather than just price action. Increases in active hotspots, data credit usage, and coverage expansion would validate the bullish thesis. Conversely, stagnant or declining network activity would suggest the price surge is disconnected from fundamentals.

For longer-term investors, the current price of $1.48 offers an interesting risk-reward profile if one believes in the DePIN thesis. At 2.7% of ATH valuation, significant upside exists if Helium can demonstrate sustained network growth and real-world adoption. However, the downside to previous support levels near $0.95 remains substantial, requiring conviction and patience.

The broader question remains: Is this rally the beginning of a DePIN sector revival, or merely a short-term rotation into undervalued infrastructure plays? Our view leans cautiously optimistic—the fundamentals of decentralized physical infrastructure are sound, and Helium remains the sector’s most established player. Yet the path from $1.48 to meaningful recovery of its 2021 valuation will require not just continued price appreciation, but demonstrable proof that the network can achieve sustainable, non-circular economics. Until that evidence materializes, we view HNT as a tactical trade rather than a strategic hold.