Bearish trends persist as Bitcoin’s fair value targets shift amid changing economic policies.
Key takeaways
- The market is expected to continue experiencing bearish conditions, with fewer bulls remaining.
- Reaching a macro low in the market will take time and won’t lead to immediate buying pressure.
- The market is not yet at a macro low, indicating further potential declines.
- Significant entry opportunities in the market occur every three to six months.
- The market was showing signs of a lopsided structure with increasing leverage and long-term holders exiting.
- Bitcoin’s fair value is targeted around $65,000, with potential changes due to the incoming Fed chair.
- The new Fed president’s policies may not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
- Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening that contradicts anticipated policies.
- The current economic environment may not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy.
- A significant drop in the stock market could lead to increased layoffs and a potential shift in interest rates.
- The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession.
- Global liquidity is decreasing, which is detrimental for risk-on assets like crypto.
- The market value to realized value ratio is currently at 1.4, indicating it has room to move before reaching a buy signal.
- Long-term holders are starting to re-enter the market, which could signal a shift towards a new bull cycle.
- Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq.
Guest intro
Michael Nadeau is the founder of The DeFi Report, a research and media company focused on decentralized finance and digital assets. He previously served as Director of Ecosystem Strategy at Inveniam, bridging crypto and traditional capital markets, and held finance and accounting roles at Boston Properties and MIT Investment Management Company. Nadeau provides institutional-grade analysis on Bitcoin cycles, on-chain metrics, and macro signals through his newsletter and advisory services.
Understanding current market conditions
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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Implications of monetary policy changes
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Global liquidity and its impact on crypto
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Market cycles and long-term holder behavior
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Investment strategies during market downturns
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Opportunities in periods of disillusionment
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Strategic investment approaches
-
— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
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— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s potential and the future of finance
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Integration of blockchain into finance
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Bearish trends persist as Bitcoin’s fair value targets shift amid changing economic policies.
Key takeaways
- The market is expected to continue experiencing bearish conditions, with fewer bulls remaining.
- Reaching a macro low in the market will take time and won’t lead to immediate buying pressure.
- The market is not yet at a macro low, indicating further potential declines.
- Significant entry opportunities in the market occur every three to six months.
- The market was showing signs of a lopsided structure with increasing leverage and long-term holders exiting.
- Bitcoin’s fair value is targeted around $65,000, with potential changes due to the incoming Fed chair.
- The new Fed president’s policies may not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
- Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening that contradicts anticipated policies.
- The current economic environment may not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy.
- A significant drop in the stock market could lead to increased layoffs and a potential shift in interest rates.
- The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession.
- Global liquidity is decreasing, which is detrimental for risk-on assets like crypto.
- The market value to realized value ratio is currently at 1.4, indicating it has room to move before reaching a buy signal.
- Long-term holders are starting to re-enter the market, which could signal a shift towards a new bull cycle.
- Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq.
Guest intro
Michael Nadeau is the founder of The DeFi Report, a research and media company focused on decentralized finance and digital assets. He previously served as Director of Ecosystem Strategy at Inveniam, bridging crypto and traditional capital markets, and held finance and accounting roles at Boston Properties and MIT Investment Management Company. Nadeau provides institutional-grade analysis on Bitcoin cycles, on-chain metrics, and macro signals through his newsletter and advisory services.
Understanding current market conditions
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Implications of monetary policy changes
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Global liquidity and its impact on crypto
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Market cycles and long-term holder behavior
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Investment strategies during market downturns
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Opportunities in periods of disillusionment
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Strategic investment approaches
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s potential and the future of finance
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
Integration of blockchain into finance
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
-
— Michael Nadeau
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/michael-nadeau-bearish-market-conditions-persist-bitcoins-fair-value-is-65000-and-long-term-holders-signal-a-potential-bull-cycle-bankless/
