Why Nigeria’s 15.10% inflation number feels like a lie; yet the math says otherwise

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics says inflation dropped to 15.10% in January 2026. On social media and on the streets, people are calling it fake news.

At the market, your tomato seller is laughing at the numbers. Analysts predicted 18-19% and are now scrambling to explain why they were wrong.

So who’s right? The answer is everyone, depending on how you look at it.

The confusion stems from something most Nigerians don’t know happened in late 2024 when the NBS completely changed how it calculates inflation. Understanding this rebasing is crucial for anyone in Nigeria’s tech ecosystem trying to make sense of economic data, price products, or build financial models.

What actually changed the calculations?

For over a decade, Nigeria measured inflation against a base period of November 2009. Every price increase was compared to what things cost back then. By 2024, this had created absurd distortions.

The NBS was comparing today’s iPhone prices to a world where iPhones didn’t exist in Nigerian markets and using expenditure patterns from when most Nigerians didn’t have smartphones.

In late 2024, the NBS finally rebased. The new system uses 2024 as the reference year, with a critical twist. So, instead of comparing prices to a single month, it uses a 12-month average from 2024 as the baseline (set at 100). This prevents artificial spikes and creates smoother comparisons.

The impact was immediate. Under the old methodology, the NBS had projected that December 2024’s number would surge to 31.2%. Under the new methodology, it came in at 15.15%. January 2026’s 15.10% continues this pattern.

This isn’t manipulation. It’s a more accurate reflection of reality. The old system was measuring inflation against a base period so outdated that it distorted everything.

Why the dramatic drop in numbers?

The rebasing explains part of the decline from the peak 34.6% Nigeria saw in November 2024 under the old methodology. But there’s also real economic improvement happening.

Food, which has driven overall inflation in Nigeria since food represents the largest share of household spending, has crashed from over 40% in late 2024 to just 8.89% in January 2026.

What happened is that the harvest season brought genuine supply improvements. The naira strengthened 7.82% in January alone (averaging ₦1,416.52 to the dollar), and staple prices like maize and sorghum have actually declined.

Month-on-month, prices fell 2.88% in January. This means things got cheaper compared to December. This is deflationary territory, driven by post-holiday demand normalisation and strong food supply.

But. There’s a but. The Consumer Price Index tracks 934 items across 13 categories, weighted by how much the “average” Nigerian household spends on each. But there’s no such thing as an average Nigerian.

If you live in Lagos and your spending is heavy on imported tech gadgets, private school fees, and generator fuel because NEPA is unreliable in your area, your personal inflation rate is nowhere near 15.10%.

Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) is still 17.72%, and for urban tech workers, it’s likely higher.

If you’re in a rural area where food is a larger share of your budget and you benefit from local harvests, 8.89% food inflation might even feel generous. Your reality could be better.

The CPI also doesn’t account for substitution. When beef becomes too expensive, the CPI assumes you keep buying beef at the new price. In reality, you switch to chicken or fish. Your lived experience of inflation, which includes this trade-down, the official number doesn’t.

Geography matters too.

Inflation in Maiduguri, where insecurity disrupts supply chains, is different from inflation in Ibadan, where agricultural production is strong. The NBS gives us a national average, but Nigeria is too diverse for averages to capture individual reality.

Why this matters for tech founders

For Nigeria’s tech ecosystem, understanding this methodology gap is critical.

If you're a fintech building credit models, should you use the 15.10% official rate or account for the higher core inflation your target customers actually experience? If you're a SaaS founder pricing in naira, how do you balance official inflation data against your own rising AWS costs and dollar-denominated expenses?

The rebasing also creates a strategic communications problem. When you tell employees that raises will track “inflation” at 15%, but their rent, transport, and food costs feel like they’ve gone up 25%, trust erodes. Founders need to acknowledge the gap between official statistics and lived reality.

For VCs modelling returns, the rebasing matters enormously. A startup showing 40% revenue growth against 15% inflation looks very different from the same growth against 25% inflation. Which number should inform your valuation models?

NBS – Inflation

Analysts at FBNQuest predicted January inflation would hit 18-19%. They were wrong by nearly 4 percentage points. Meristem pointed to stable PMS prices (around ₦739 per litre following Dangote Refinery’s December price cut) and the stronger naira as key factors they underestimated.

The disinflationary trend appears sustainable. Food prices are cooling, the exchange rate is stabilising, and energy costs remain controlled.

If the Central Bank of Nigeria decides to cut its 27% policy rate in response to sustained single-digit food inflation, borrowing costs could finally ease, unlocking growth for credit-dependent sectors like fintech and e-commerce.

But the paradox is that even if inflation continues falling to 12% or 10% by mid-2026, many Nigerians will still insist the numbers are fake. That’s because the gap between official methodology and personal experience isn’t going away.

The NBS measures aggregate price changes across a standardised basket. You experience price changes in your specific consumption pattern, in your specific location, with your specific income level.

So is Nigeria’s inflation really 15.10%? Yes, by the technical definition of how inflation is measured. Is your personal inflation rate higher or lower? Also yes. Both can be true simultaneously.

Understanding that distinction is what separates founders who make good decisions from those flying blind.

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