XMR Technical Analysis Feb 18

XMR continues its overall downtrend with LH/LL structure, but holding above short-term EMA20 raises the question: is it trend continuation or a CHoCH signal? The market structure is fragile, BOS levels are critically important.

Market Structure Overview

XMR’s current market structure is characterized by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) patterns reflecting the dominant downtrend. The current price is trading at 333.95 USD, with a 24-hour change of +0.01% neutral, but bearish signals dominate in the overall context. Supertrend gives a bearish signal and resistance is positioned at 145.76 USD, limiting upward movements. The EMA structure shows a short-term bullish picture; the price is trading above EMA20 (130.53 USD), but in higher timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W), 9 strong levels were detected: 4 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/3 resistances on 3D, 4 supports/3 resistances on 1W. RSI at 38.32 is not approaching oversold, MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram. This structure requires preservation of LLs for trend continuation and formation of a higher high (HH) for reversal. The market is open to volatility; rapid changes are expected if any BOS (Break of Structure) level is broken.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, the formation of higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL) structure is essential. In the short term, the price staying above EMA20 (130.53 USD) provides mild bullish short-term momentum. The last 24-hour range of 326.10-338.78 USD shows contraction, while the bullish continuation target is marked at 180.70 USD (score:28). If the price breaks above the last swing high of 131.17 USD (score:76) and forms a new HH, this can be interpreted as CHoCH (Change of Character) invalidating the downtrend. However, current RSI and MACD do not support these signals; only a short-term recovery possibility exists. More detailed indicator data can be reviewed in XMR Spot Analysis.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strong with LH/LL: Recent swing lows at 117.58 USD (score:80), 100.40 USD (71), and 109.55 USD (69) support it. The price approaching these levels reinforces the LL pattern. MACD bearish histogram and Supertrend resistance (145.76 USD) increase downward pressure. Bearish breakdown target is 60.25 USD (score:21); descent to here accelerates by breaking LLs. The market confirms trend continuation by testing lower highs; for example, if 119.35 USD resistance (score:71) is not broken, risk increases.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend changes. For bullish BOS, the critical resistance is 131.17 USD (last swing high, score:76); if broken with a close, the downtrend structure breaks with HH formation targeting 180.70 USD. Bearish BOS is confirmed by dropping below 117.58 USD swing low (score:80); this LL break accelerates the trend and opens the path to 100.40 USD, then 60.25 USD. In MTF (1D/3D/1W), these levels are strong: 1W supports protect LLs, while resistances limit LHs. Without BOS, the trend does not change; for example, a sustained close above the daily high of 338.78 USD would be short-term bullish BOS, but the overall structure remains bearish. Monitor these levels in leveraged trades via XMR Futures Analysis.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: 131.17 USD (score:76, main resistance), 119.35 USD (score:71, intermediate LH). These levels form the LH pattern; their breaks trigger bullish BOS. 131.17 USD is strong in MTF (especially 1D/3D), price approaching here signals LH test. Importance: If these resistances hold, downtrend continues; if broken, transition to HL.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: 117.58 USD (score:80, major support), 100.40 USD (71), 109.55 USD (69). These define LLs; if 117.58 USD breaks, bearish BOS and cascade effect accelerate descent to 60.25 USD. In 1W timeframe, these supports are critical; staying above provides short-term HL but does not change the overall downtrend.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 67,782.75 USD (-0.41%) in downtrend; main supports at 66,556 USD, 62,910 USD, 60,000 USD. Resistances at 68,117 USD, 71,259 USD, 78,130 USD. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance risky for altcoins. XMR is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC drops below 66,556 USD, XMR LLs break and test of 117.58 USD accelerates. If BTC recovers above 68,117 USD, XMR holds short-term EMA20 support, but overall bearish BTC structure strengthens XMR LH/LL. Monitor BTC levels: Decline triggers XMR bearish targets (60.25 USD).

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominates, BOS levels (above 131.17 USD bullish, below 117.58 USD bearish) are decisive. Although short-term EMA20 is bullish, MTF supports and indicators (RSI 38, negative MACD) signal trend continuation. HH/HL required for CHoCH; reversal weak without breaking current LLs. Market volatile, lack of news highlights technical structure. Downtrend assumption valid until BOS breaks structure; swing levels are pivots for trading. Attention: Rapid changes possible, risk management essential.