DOT Price Prediction: Polkadot Eyes $1.65 Recovery Despite Technical Weakness
Peter Zhang Feb 18, 2026 08:46
Polkadot (DOT) trades at $1.36 with bearish momentum signals, but analyst forecasts suggest potential 77% upside by year-end targeting $2.74 recovery levels.
DOT Price Prediction Summary
• Short-term target (1 week): $1.40-$1.45 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $1.25-$1.65 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.65 • Critical support: $1.32
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Polkadot
While specific analyst predictions from crypto Twitter are limited in recent hours, several major forecasting platforms have issued DOT price predictions for 2026. According to CoinPriceForecast's January analysis, Polkadot could see significant upside potential, with their forecast stating: "The forecasted Polkadot price at the end of 2026 is $2.74 - and the year to year change +51%. The rise from today to year-end: +77%."
CoinCodex offers a more conservative near-term Polkadot forecast, suggesting "DOT is forecasted to trade within a range of $1.25 and $1.65. If it reaches the upper price target, DOT could increase by 19.91% and reach $1.65." Coinbase's analysis aligns with this sentiment, setting a target price of $1.65 representing a 27.6% increase over five years.
According to on-chain data from major exchanges, DOT's current technical positioning suggests mixed signals with neutral RSI readings but bearish momentum indicators signaling caution for short-term traders.
DOT Technical Analysis Breakdown
Polkadot's current technical picture presents a challenging environment for bulls. Trading at $1.36, DOT sits below its key moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $1.39 acting as immediate resistance. The 50-day SMA at $1.78 and 200-day SMA at $2.85 indicate the longer-term downtrend remains intact.
The RSI reading of 38.88 places DOT in neutral territory, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought conditions. However, the MACD histogram at 0.0000 with a bearish signal line crossover indicates weakening momentum. The Stochastic oscillator shows %K at 68.70 and %D at 54.96, suggesting some short-term bullish divergence may be developing.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals DOT trading at 42% of the band width, positioned closer to the middle band ($1.39) than the lower band ($1.17). The daily ATR of $0.10 indicates moderate volatility, providing reasonable trading opportunities for active traders.
Key resistance levels stand at $1.38 (immediate) and $1.40 (strong), while support is found at $1.34 (immediate) and $1.32 (strong). The 24-hour trading range of $1.34-$1.38 aligns with these technical levels.
Polkadot Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
A bullish DOT price prediction hinges on breaking above the $1.40 resistance level with sustained volume. Success here could target the upper Bollinger Band at $1.62, representing a 19% upside from current levels. The ultimate bull case targets the analyst consensus around $1.65, which would require breaking through multiple resistance layers including the 20-day SMA.
For this Polkadot forecast to materialize, DOT needs RSI to break above 50, MACD histogram to turn positive, and daily volume to exceed the current $4.74 million significantly. A break above $1.65 could trigger momentum toward the longer-term targets near $2.74 suggested by annual forecasts.
Bearish Scenario
The bear case for DOT centers on the failure to reclaim $1.38 resistance and a break below the $1.32 support level. Such a breakdown could target the lower Bollinger Band at $1.17, representing a 14% decline from current levels. The broader bear target aligns with CoinCodex's lower range estimate of $1.25.
Risk factors include continued MACD bearishness, failure to hold above the 20-day SMA, and overall crypto market weakness. A break below $1.25 would invalidate most near-term bullish scenarios and could signal deeper correction toward psychological support levels.
Should You Buy DOT? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical levels, potential DOT buyers should consider a layered approach. The first entry opportunity exists near current levels around $1.36, with a tight stop-loss below $1.32 support. A more conservative entry would wait for a successful test and hold above $1.40 resistance.
For swing traders, the ideal setup involves waiting for RSI to break above 50 while maintaining position above the 20-day SMA at $1.39. The risk-reward ratio improves significantly on any dip toward $1.34 support, offering a better entry for the potential rally toward $1.65.
Position sizing should reflect the current bearish momentum signals, with risk management paramount given the MACD weakness. Setting profit targets at $1.45 (short-term) and $1.62 (medium-term) provides reasonable risk-adjusted returns.
Conclusion
This DOT price prediction suggests cautious optimism despite current technical weakness. While short-term momentum indicators flash bearish signals, analyst forecasts and key support levels indicate potential for recovery toward $1.65 in the coming weeks.
The Polkadot forecast balances between immediate technical challenges and longer-term fundamental optimism. Traders should monitor the critical $1.32 support level closely, as a break below could invalidate near-term bullish scenarios. Conversely, a sustained move above $1.40 could trigger the rally toward analyst price targets.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and involve significant risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Image source: Shutterstock- dot price analysis
- dot price prediction
