ETC Technical Analysis Feb 18

ETC’s 24-hour trading volume is hovering at the 26.84 million dollar level; despite the downtrend, the low-volume slight rise indicates that selling pressure is decreasing and gives possible accumulation signals. Market participation is limited, but the volume profile is strengthening at support levels.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ETC’s current volume profile is positioned at medium-low levels with a 24-hour trading volume of 26.84 million dollars. This volume is 20-30% lower compared to recent weekly averages, indicating limited overall market participation. Despite the price trading below the EMA20 (9.17$) in the downtrend, this stagnation in volume signals the absence of widespread selling and that retail investors are waiting on the sidelines. When examining the volume profile, a total of 10 strong levels are identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, similar distribution on 3D, and 1 support/2 resistances on 1W. These levels are strengthening particularly around the 8.62$ support zone with volume clusters, reflecting that market participants are showing buying interest at these prices.

In terms of market participation, volume during upward movements is lower than during declines; this could be a healthy consolidation signal. Instead of high-volume spikes, stable low volume suggests that institutional players are quietly shaping their positions. With RSI at 38.67 approaching the oversold region, this calm in volume increases the potential for momentum reversal.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals are clearly standing out. Despite the price being in a downtrend, the 24-hour change closes slightly positive at +0.58%, and this rise occurs on low volume – a classic accumulation pattern. Low-volume bottom tests, especially around the 8.62$ support level, show volume increases; this implies that strong hands (institutional) are averaging down their costs. The positive MACD histogram reinforces the price-volume divergence: volume has decreased as price fell, indicating that selling strength is exhausted. The latest MTF analysis shows support volumes outweighing resistances on the 1W timeframe, which is positive for long-term accumulation.

Additionally, although the Supertrend is bearish (resistance 10.39$), the volume profile is shifting the POC (Point of Control) level around 8.70$, which aligns with the current price and strengthens the accumulation base.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risks are low but should not be ignored. If volume spikes sharply toward resistances (8.99$ and 9.43$) and price gets rejected, this could be a distribution trap. The current 26.84M volume does not include high-volume selling waves, but if BTC’s downtrend triggers it, distribution in altcoins could accelerate. Although there is divergence at RSI 38.67, persistence below EMA20 could give a distribution signal. Trading below volume averages stems from lack of participation; upside cannot be sustained without sudden volume increase.

Price-Volume Alignment

Price movements are partially aligned with volume, but divergences are noteworthy. During the downtrend, as price tested EMA20, volume decreased; this shows that bears’ strength is weakening and bulls are stepping in. The low volume on the +0.58% change indicates a non-speculative recovery – volume increase is essential for healthy upside. Despite the bearish Supertrend, the MACD bullish histogram creates a volume-confirmed divergence: volume contraction as price falls could herald a trend change.

Volume confirmation is strong at support levels (8.62$ score 66/100, 8.24$ score 65/100); volume increase is expected in case of breakout. At resistances (8.99$ score 71/100), volume test is critical: high-volume rejection confirms downside.

Big Player Activity

Big player (institutional/whale) activity is evident through clusters in the volume profile. Despite low retail volume, stable volumes at 1D/3D levels signal institutional accumulation. No sudden spikes; instead, quiet volume increases are seen at supports – typical smart money behavior. As BTC dominance rises suppressing alts, this activity remains relatively strong in ETC. Although no whale alerts, MTF volume nodes (10 strong levels) indicate they are on big players’ radar. Even without knowing their exact positions, low-volume bottom defense favors accumulation.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend at 67,909$ level (+0.04% 24h), Supertrend bearish with main supports at 68,050$/65,498$/62,910$. Resistances at 70,249$/78,145$/83,750$. BTC’s bearish Supertrend is a caution signal for altcoins; ETC is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+), so if BTC breaks below 68k, ETC could be pulled to 8.24$. Conversely, if BTC breaks above 70k resistance, bullish targets (12.22$) open for ETC. Follow ETC Spot Analysis for ETC spot analysis, ETC Futures Analysis for futures.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is consolidation and accumulation weighted in the short term: low volume reduces selling pressure, divergences carry upside potential. Bullish scenario: if 8.99$ breaks with volume increase, targets 9.43$ and 12.22$ (score 33). Bearish: if 8.62$ breaks on volume-supported downside, 8.24$ and 4.53$ (score 22). Watch: breaking volume averages (30M+), RSI rising to 50. Volume tells the story beyond price: if participation increases, trend changes.